Putin forges new ties with former republics

By Steven Lee Myers
The New York Times

MOSCOW - President Vladimir Putin is not subtle.

As the presidential campaign climaxed late last month in Ukraine, a country
once dominated by Russia's czars and commissars but now free to choose its
own way, Putin went to Kiev for three days of politicking on behalf of the
candidate who promised to strengthen bonds with Moscow.

That candidate came in a close second to one advocating closer ties to
Europe - another way of calling for greater independence from its big
neighbor. On Friday, barely a week ahead of the runoff, Putin was in Ukraine
again.

In the language of international diplomacy this is known as interfering in
another country's internal affairs. For Putin, however, it is an
increasingly typical feature of what might be called Russia's soft
imperialism.

From the edges of a new Europe to the Caucasus to Central Asia, Putin is
wielding Russia's considerable resources - and his personal clout - to keep
those countries in what Russians call the "near abroad" under the sway, if
not outright domination, of the Kremlin.

He has used Russia's economic levers - above all, its oil and gas, often
sold at discounts - to bind its neighbors into an ever tighter dependency.
He has countered the U.S. military buildup in Central Asia after the Sept.
11 attacks with a buildup of Russian forces in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Separatist regions abetted

In Moldova and Georgia, Russia has openly abetted separatist regions by
refusing to keep its commitments to withdraw its troops. In Abkhazia and
South Ossetia in Georgia, it has also granted Russian citizenship to
thousands who, technically, are citizens of other countries, an act that
makes them candidates for the special attention of Kremlin diplomacy.

Putin is not rebuilding the Soviet Union. But he is trying to forge an
economic, social and military facsimile, with Moscow again at the core, in
all but three of its former republics. The notable exceptions are the Baltic
nations, which irrevocably severed the old chains and now belong to NATO and
the European Union.

Elsewhere, despite new national identities that took root after the Soviet
collapse, he appears to be succeeding.

"Russia is on its way to recover the degree of soft power the U.S.S.R. once
enjoyed in its immediate sphere of influence," Fiona Hill, an expert with
the Brookings Institution, wrote in a recent study for the Foreign Policy
Center in London, referring to the economic power and cultural influence
that once accompanied the far harder power of the troops and security
apparatus that controlled the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.

Protecting interests

It is no surprise that Putin, like any leader, would consider it his right
to protect what he sees as the country's interests in its extensive back
yard, especially now that the United States, the European Union, China and
others are actively pursuing their own business and strategic interests
there.

But some of his policies and pronouncements have revived fears of Russia's
long shadow. In Poland, a former Soviet satellite, a scandal has erupted
over allegations of bribery and espionage involving a Russian agent and the
country's largest oil company.

"We are facing a restoration of the Russian empire through economic means,"
Zbigniew Siemiatkowski, the former Polish chief of intelligence, told a
parliamentary inquiry last month.

Indeed, the rebound of Russia's economy after the financial crisis of 1998
has given Putin new leverage with which to counter the economic and
political incentives the West is offering Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia,
Azerbaijan and the countries of Central Asia to lure them out of Moscow's
embrace.

Russia has the advantage of proximity and old ties, as well as linguistic
bonds, because Russian remains the language of commerce and diplomacy
throughout the region. Even more important, it has oil and gas.

As Stephen O'Sullivan, the head of research at the United Financial Group in
Moscow, put it, "Oil and gas is what makes Russia important to a lot of the
world."

Reclaiming status

Putin, who not long ago called the Soviet collapse a "national tragedy," is
clearly eager to reclaim for Russia some of its status as a superpower. And
there is more to it than economics. The perceived losses of the Baltics and,
more recently, of Georgia have been treated in Russia as a blow to national
prestige.

That is what has made the outcome of Ukraine's election so evidently vital
to Putin. Despite gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine retains deep ties to
Russia because it spent centuries under Moscow's rule. Many Ukrainians are
ethnic Russians.

Now, President Leonid Kuchma's decision to step down after 10 years has
opened up a fiercely contested fight over the country's future. Kuchma
himself zigzagged between Russia and the West, but he has thrown his support
to Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, who has made it clear he feels the
country's interests lie to the east.
And that makes Yanukovich the candidate favored by Putin over Victor
Yushchenko, who wants to balance trade with Russia with expanded ties to
Ukraine's European neighbors.

"This election is not about Yushchenko or Yanukovich or even Ukraine,"
Hryhoriy Nemyria, director of the European Center for International Studies
in Kiev, said in an interview after the first round of voting. "It's about
Russia."

He said a victory for Yushchenko in the runoff would amount to a public
humiliation of Putin, at home and abroad.

"The perception would be that Ukraine escaped, like Georgia," he said. "It
would be like the escape of a little sister from the family."