UKRAINE'S YUSHCHENKO NEEDS TO BALANCE RUSSIA, EU

ANALYSIS: By Ron Popeski, Reuters, Kiev, Ukraine, Dec 20, 2004

KIEV - Ukraine's Viktor Yushchenko may be the toast of Western capitals but he will have a tricky balance to maintain between the West and big neighbour Russia if, as expected, he wins the re-run of a rigged election next Sunday.

The would-be president's call of "let's not miss the train for Europe" -- moving Ukraine into the European mainstream and possibly joining the European Union and NATO -- has met with resounding endorsement from many supporters at street rallies.

But the 50-year-old liberal former prime minister, often labelled Western- leaning, has cautiously emphasised that Russia, the former imperial master, remains a "strategic partner."

All the same, Ukraine, long Russia's closest ally in former Soviet territory, seems likely to shift -- however gradually -- towards Brussels and Washington if Yushchenko beats Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich in the Dec. 26 repeat vote.

Moscow openly backed the prime minister in the Nov. 21 run-off between the two men that gave victory to Yanukovich but was later annulled by the Supreme Court on grounds of fraud.

The EU, to which three of Ukraine's neighbours belong, came down heavily in favour of a re-run of the poll, some time before the Supreme Court ruling. And diplomats in NATO have said informally that the U.S.-led alliance is ready to speed Ukraine towards closer ties and membership if Yushchenko wins the new vote.

"UNIQUE PLACE"
All this could be a bitter pill for Russia to swallow after centuries of seeing Ukraine as a "younger brother" -- a role some analysts say Yushchenko would end forever.

Doubts remain over Moscow's likely reaction, with memories fresh of a spat this year in which Russian nationalists refused to accept Ukraine's sovereignty over a Black Sea island. "With Yushchenko, there will be no younger or older brother," said analyst Oleksander Dergachyov.

"There remains the real problem of Russia's irrational position in the construction of Europe. But I believe that Russia will quickly learn that Yushchenko is a far better option as leader of the country next door than Yanukovich."

Yushchenko says much remains to be done before his country of 47 million people, where the average monthly salary is $100, can dream of joining the EU, whose wealth and democracy have been a beacon for the ex-communist states of eastern Europe.

"I personally believe Ukraine has a unique geopolitical place in Europe. A comfortable European home will depend on Ukraine's position and role," Yushchenko has said.

"The European Union should set up a project for Ukraine which will offer a clear road to join the European Union provided proper measures and reforms are undertaken."

Yushchenko, whose power base is mainly in the capital Kiev and in western regions of the country, conspicuously reserves his warmest words about Russia for when he is in his opponent's eastern strongholds.

"If you think in normal terms about Ukraine, Russia will always be our northern neighbour, our strategic partner. This can be a secret for no one," he said while campaigning in the last election.

PRACTICAL TIES
But he also seeks better, more practical ties with Russia, which provides Ukraine with much of its oil imports and gives it gas in payment for transit of Russian energy deliveries across Ukraine territory.

"We will tackle issues still unresolved -- economic policy, trade, customs, jobs, capital," he said. "The main thing is that these issues should not block Ukraine's road to the EU."

Any quick move towards expanding Ukraine's special relationship with NATO into membership would have to manoeuvre carefully around sympathy for Russia in eastern regions as well as take account of the poor state of Ukraine's military.

Ukrainian analysts say a Yushchenko victory offers the EU, and the West at large, a chance to review its policies towards the former Soviet Union.

"The West has a dilemma. Either it keeps seeing Russia as the key actor in the ex-Soviet Union or it makes use of events in Ukraine," said independent analyst Volodymyr Polokhalo.

"A Yushchenko win would give Europe and the West a chance to revise their approach and see Ukraine not as a buffer but as an area in which to extend Western influence in the region."

Yanukovich is irritated by the notion that voters are choosing a pro-European or a pro-Russian option. He tells rallies that he, too, favours a "European choice."

But the premier also derides the "foreign financing" of his rival's campaign. He rails against "interference" by mediators who helped set up the framework for the new vote, singling out President Aleksander Kwasniewski of new EU member Poland.