Ex-Soviet states still in Russia's shadow

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,5673,1336766,00.html
Ex-Soviet states still in Russia's shadow
Simon Tisdall
Wednesday October 27, 2004
The Guardian

Vladimir Putin is not averse to voicing his opinions on other countries' elections.

He recently endorsed George Bush's re-election bid. And when it comes to Ukraine, there is little doubt where he stands. He favours Ukraine's prime minister, Viktor Yanukovich, a man in the authoritarian mould of the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma. Protests of interference from supporters of the pro-western candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, have gone unheeded.

Russia's reasons for wanting a biddable, like-minded government in Kiev are numerous. It is a strategic part of what Moscow calls its "near abroad" - countries once part of the Soviet Union. It is of particular importance in defence. The Black Sea fleet is still based at Sevastopol in Crimea, now part of Ukraine.

Mr Putin's revived interest has led to heightened tensions with Georgia. Moscow's tolerance enabled the dictator of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to tighten his grip on power this month. The prevalence of "controlled democracy" in the former Soviet central Asia republics matches Russia, where political pluralism is becoming a thing of the past.

Trade and oil are other reasons why Mr Putin's embrace of Ukraine is tightening. Russia would also be dismayed were Ukraine to join Nato - it has associate status under the partnership for peace programme. Much the same goes for the EU.

Full membership of both organisations, and closer ties to the US, are advocated by Mr Yushchenko - but he fears trends may be dragging Ukraine backwards. "There are ominous signs of a neo-Soviet revival here," he wrote recently. Ukrainians "always considered ourselves part of Europe, not just neighbours". But following EU enlargement in May, the danger was a bipolar Europe with opposing centres in Brussels and Moscow.

"The dividing line established during the cold war has not totally vanished - it has only shifted a few hundred kilometres to the east," Mr Yushchenko said. The EU faced the prospect of "an entire bloc of authoritarian, corrupt regimes on its borders".

Mr Yanukovich has a different view. "The question of EU membership must take into consideration Ukraine's economic cooperation with Russia," he said. "Our neighbour is our friend as well as our largest trading partner." Ukraine would further integrate with Europe "when the time is right".

Like Mr Kuchma and Mr Putin, Mr Yanukovich backs media controls and a state-oriented, oligarchic business structure. Stern measures are planned should the opposition contest on the streets next Sunday's result or the expected run-off.

The EU is watching Ukraine's polls closely, as are the Council of Europe and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Each is concerned at possible intimidation or fraud.

Influenced by Mr Kuchma's contribution of troops to Iraq, the US's criticism is muted. But the US embassy in Kiev said it was launching a $13m (£7m) programme "to support free and fair elections".

According to Richard Holbrooke, the former US ambassador to the UN, tipped as secretary of state should John Kerry win: "Good relations with Mr Putin need not be purchased at the price of democratic regression in Russia or Moscow's intimidation of Ukraine, Georgia and other former Soviet republics."