An Idiotic Analysis

Q&A: An independent path for Ukraine
By Peter Lavelle
Published on November 15, 2004
This article was written for UPI - United Press International
http://www.untimely-thoughts.com/?art=1037

MOSCOW, Nov. 15 (UPI) -- United Press International's Russia analyst Peter Lavelle spoke with E. Morgan Williams, executive director of the Ukrainian Federation of America, publisher and editor of the influential "The Action Ukraine Report," and currently in Kiev as an election observer, on the importance of Ukraine's run-off presidential election slated for Nov. 21.

UPI: In your opinion, what is at stake in this election? Is it accurate to characterize this presidential election as a choice between European integration and a return to the Kremlin's fold?

Williams: This is a very high-stakes election for Ukraine. Ukraine needs millions of new jobs and millions of higher paying jobs. To accomplish this, Ukraine has to develop a type of open, transparent, internationally acceptable economic and political system that is backed up by a stable, level playing field, rule of law, and a professional court system.

Only then will Ukraine be attractive to the domestic and international investors capable of creating the millions of jobs Ukraine must have if her people, from Kiev to the smallest village, are going to prosper. Direct foreign investment in Ukraine is very low and will not change dramatically if Ukraine moves to return to the Kremlin's fold. Ukraine needs much more than Russia.

Ukraine needs the international business community. The former Soviet economic system is not attractive to the international business community, and (it) is not very interested in a government in Ukraine that has to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin every three weeks or so.

Ukraine has had some good economic growth numbers, but these come from a very low base. The real "economic miracle" that could happen in Ukraine has not yet happened for sure. So far one has only seen a glimpse of what could happen if the government creates the right economic environment.

Q. Given that the first round was marred by voting irregularities and charges of outright fraud, what precautions is the opposition taking to ensure a cleaner outcome in the second round?

A. The campaign leaders working for the opposition know very well the types of gross voting irregularities and outright fraud that took place in Round One. From what is known, they are organizing to offset the weaknesses in their monitoring system found in Round One. This is a very difficult task. They also know they have to win by a very large margin or else the election will be stolen.

The old Soviet system, much of which is still in place -- run from the top down by the authorities from Kiev into every city, town and village across Ukraine -- is a very tough, mean, and hardball system. Reports indicate they are very adept and skilled in a broad range of activities designed to add illegal votes for the candidate of the authorities and to take away votes from the opposition candidate.

Q. There has much discussion and commentary that the opposition is prepared to attempt a "Chestnut Revolution" if the election results are deemed to be rigged. Is this a serious possibility?

A. Most observers do not think this is a serious possibility. Ukrainians are not prone to this type of activity, and Ukraine is a very large country. However, having said this, it is not entirely clear what will happen if one candidate wins by a large margin, only to have the election stolen.

Q. Ukraine's elections have shown that the country is very much divided. Irrespective of the election outcome, what needs to happen to bring about greater unity among Ukrainians?

A. Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen (men and women) that they are a very large country with 48 million people. They have a land mass that is large enough, wealth and population to be a very strong, significant country in their own right on the world scene.

Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen that they now have the best opportunity ever to become a strong, independent, democratic, prosperous country. Many Ukrainians and their ancestors fought for the opportunity now at hand for hundreds of years. The land is stained with the blood of those who fought for the opportunity that Ukraine now has. The time is now; there is no need to wait any longer. Wonderful, exciting opportunities are staring all Ukrainians right in the face. Why do not more Ukrainians see this clearly and passionately?

Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen that their weakness of identity as a nation and their weakness of self-respect and pride as a nation have made them rather easy targets in the past for those who love to dominate and build empires, such as the Muscovites.

Ukrainians need to be reminded of the tens of millions of Ukrainians that were murdered during the days of Soviet Ukraine through the famine-terror (Holodomor) genocide of the early 1930's and on through the rest of the murderous programs imposed by the Soviets based in Moscow, including the dispersion of millions of Ukrainians throughout the Soviet Union.

Ukraine is a post-genocidal, post-Soviet society that had much of its real leadership murdered, imprisoned or dispersed for over 70 years and even before that. This is a tough legacy to confront. A whole new leadership structure has to be developed.

Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen that Russia does not need to control Ukraine to be a significant country in its own right. Ukraine needs a normal relationship with all of its neighbors and not to be dominated by those in Moscow who love to build empires, to control and manipulate their neighbors.

Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen that Ukraine does not need a symbiotic or parasitical relationship with Russia. Ukraine does not need to allow Russia to walk all over it. Ukraine needs to stand up on its own two feet and work for a normal relationship with Russia, not a subservient one. This is very difficult as Russia is so large, so wealthy, so dominant and so empire oriented.

Ukrainians need to be reminded by their statesmen that their best opportunity to be strong and prosperous is to run their own country and not be running to Moscow every few weeks asking for support and special favors. This is a losing proposition for Ukraine, always has been and always will be. There is no need for this, and it should stop immediately.

Only a strong, independent Ukraine that develops European type structures will be able to create the millions of jobs needed by her people. The name of the game is jobs, and it is not rocket science as to what the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people need to do to create the environment that will allow the millions of jobs needed to become a reality. So in the end the Ukrainian people can finally have the society and prosperity that has been robbed from them in the past.

Q. Why aren't there more statesmen (men and women) in Ukraine who are ready and eager to move quickly away from the old Soviet system and Soviet structures, to move from the Russian dominated past? Why are there not more statesmen who see the future clearly enough that they are willing to fight to lead the new nation into the future and not move it back to the past?

A. Patriotism is not a dirty word as some of the present authorities want people to think, especially those who want to maintain their power and are very comfortable with the Russian way of doing business and its top-down, non-democratic, authoritarian political system.

Ukraine needs many more leaders and everyday citizens with a much stronger sense of patriotism, in the correct meaning of the word and concept.

A true sense of patriotism, pride and belief in what Ukraine can become, as a truly independent nation, for the benefit of the millions of people who live in Ukraine and those millions of citizens who would like to return to Ukraine is needed in Ukraine today. One can see much progress in this area in the last two years, but much more progress is needed.

Ukraine is not Russia, does not need to be and should not want to be. Ukraine is Ukraine, and hopefully all Ukrainians will work harder to establish the true and positive identity of Ukraine that the world will see, recognize and respect. That is when Ukraine will attract the domestic and international investments needed for jobs and prosperity.