Ukraine: U.S. Pressure Improves Yuschenko's Chances

November 08, 2004   2227 GMT
Copyright 2004 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.

Summary

U.S. President George Bush has stepped up pressure on Russia and Ukraine to secure an
outcome in Ukraine's presidential elections that is favorable to the United States.
Pro-U.S. candidate Viktor Yuschenko and his pro-Russian opponent Viktor Yanukovich face a
runoff Nov. 21.

Analysis

On Nov. 5, U.S. President George Bush encouraged Russian President Vladimir Putin -- for
the sake of good ties between Washington and Moscow -- to shift his support from
pro-Russia candidate Viktor Yanukovich to pro-U.S. candidate Viktor Yuschenko in Ukraine's
presidential elections, sources close to the Russian Security Council say.

Washington thinks the case is worth pressing because a Yuschenko victory in Ukraine would
give Washington more influence on Russian policies. Washington could be right. Putin has
tied his political future -- and Russia's future, as he envisions it -- to Washington and
is bent on steering Russia to the West. He is unlikely to spoil relations with the United
States over a Ukrainian presidential election.

Washington has made a few steps that Russia perceives to be a warning to Moscow. First,
the Pentagon recently suggested that Russians removed 300 tons of explosives from the al
Qaqaa ammunition depot in Iraq. Second, U.S. Ambassador to Moscow Alexander Vershbow, in a
Nov. 7 interview on a Moscow radio program, expressed Washington's concerns over Russia's
handling of the Yukos affair (the Russian energy company is headed by Mikhail
Khodorkovsky, who is considered pro-United States).

While Putin has shied away from a direct answer to Bush's request, he has promised to do
what he can to ensure the Ukrainian election outcome will not harm U.S. interests. Sources
say he told Bush there is nothing more important to him than good relations with the
United States. Indeed, there are some signs the Kremlin might be drifting away from
Yanukovich under Washington's pressure, which has intensified following Bush's
re-election.

Over the weekend of Nov. 5-7, leaks from the Putin administration to the Russian media
suggested that Yanukovich should withdraw his candidacy before the second round for the
sake of Ukrainian unity. Sources say the leak is seen as an anti-Yanukovich move meant to
confuse his supporters and to signal to Ukraine's elite that it is time to switch sides.
It is not clear whether Putin authorized the leak. In addition, the Kremlin has turned a
cold shoulder to Yanukovich's proposal to introduce dual citizenship for Ukrainians and
Russians.

Sources in the Ukrainian administration say Bush also called Ukrainian President Leonid
Kuchma on Nov. 7 and strongly encouraged him and other government officials to support
Yuschenko.

Washington has built a long dossier on Kuchma, who it accuses of (among other things)
selling Ukraine's newest air defense systems to Saddam Hussein's government, authorizing
the assassination of opposition journalists and other political opponents,
misappropriating state funds and turning a blind eye to human rights violations. Several
high-profile defectors from the Ukrainian government, now living in the West, along with
former Prime Minister Pavel Lazarenko, who is residing in a U.S. jail for
money-laundering, know a great deal about Kuchma's alleged wrongdoings. It would be
relatively easy for Washington to help initiate legal actions in the United States and
elsewhere to have Kuchma detained while he travels abroad.

While time will tell whether Kuchma was sincere in assuring Bush he will stay neutral and
try to keep the election process fair and balanced, sources say there are signs that some
Ukrainian officials, sensing Kuchma's hesitation and unwillingness to openly throw his
weight behind Yanukovich, could start distancing themselves from Yanukovich and seek
contact with Yuschenko.

All of this suggests that Bush and his team, with their hands free following the
re-election, are paying considerable attention to Ukraine as a strategically key country
between Russia and Europe, and there is some indication that the U.S. pressure is
beginning to bear fruit. So soon after the re-election, the Bush administration has enough
momentum be able to focus on several major issues at a time. In addition, there are some
good strategic thinkers in the administration who appreciate Ukraine's geopolitical value
and the need to deal with its presidential election -- even as coalition forces launch a
major assault against Fallujah in Iraq's Sunni Triangle. Bush's making three phone calls
-- two to Putin (the first one just before the Ukrainian elections began) and one to
Kuchma (just before the U.S. elections) suggests Ukraine is on a White-House front burner.

If Russia continues to distance itself from Yanukovich, and switching sides among
Ukrainian officials becomes epidemic, these factors could have a significant impact on
voters in eastern Ukraine, the largest electoral territory favoring Yanukovich in the
first round. Yuschenko would likely win the runoff, especially if he manages to keep his
hard-core supporters in western Ukraine and Kiev from large protest rallies, which could
result in violence and scare away mainstream voters.

At this point, all things considered, Yuschenko's and Yanukovich's chances are fairly
equal. Yanukovich's attempts to introduce dual citizenship for Ukranians and Russians and
to elevate the status of the Russian language in Ukraine (in schools and government
correspondence) appeals to millions in the country's east and south. At the same time, his
government's paying salaries to government workers that had been in arrears and social
benefits as never before shortly before the election has appealed to some in the middle
class and many among the poor. Time will soon tell whether these efforts will be strong
enough to defeat Yuschenko, who is enjoying growing attention and support from the world's
only superpower.