Putin's Campaign Has Kiev on Edge

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/10/28/001.html
Thursday, October 28, 2004. Page 1.
Putin's Campaign Has Kiev on Edge
By Francesca Mereu

Staff Writer KIEV -- President Vladimir Putin's high-profile support for
Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych during his visit to Ukraine this week,
ahead of Sunday's close-run presidential election, is raising fears in Kiev
that Russia plans to increase its influence over the country.

Putin's support for Yanukovych, whom President Leonid Kuchma is backing to
succeed him, is a vital part of Putin's "strong state" project, since part
of his authority in Russia relies on the perceived restoration of the
country as a superpower, Ukrainian political analysts said.

To achieve its aim, Moscow could be using a window of opportunity while the
West is temporarily distracted -- the United States by its own presidential
election, and Europe by a dispute over the makeup of the European
Commission -- to influence the outcome of Sunday's vote, experts said.

With just days to go before the election, polls continue to put Yanukovych
and the main opposition candidate, liberal Viktor Yushchenko, neck-and-neck
in the race for the support of the country's 36 million registered voters.
Most analysts predict the election will go to a runoff between the two on
Nov. 14.
Since 1994, when Kuchma came to power, the Kremlin has endorsed its favored
candidate in Ukrainian elections. This time, however, the Kremlin has gone a
step further, backing a plan to hand over power to Kuchma's designated
successor and stop Yushchenko, a former prime minister and Central Bank
chairman, from winning.

"If Putin succeeds in getting his candidate elected, he would feel pretty
safe to continue trying to restore Russia's great-power status," said
Hryhoriy Nemyria, director of the Kiev-based Center for European and
International Studies. "A significant part of Putin's legitimacy lies in his
ability to control developments in Russia's 'near abroad.'

"But if he fails -- and Ukraine is a key test in this -- Putin's legitimacy
in the eyes of Russians would be undermined, not critically, but
significantly," he said.
Vladimir Polokhalo, an independent political analyst at the World Economy
and International Relations Institute of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences,
agreed. He said that Russia "is building an authoritarian regime" and needs
Ukraine as part of the plan.

"If Putin loses Ukraine, his voters would blame him for not having been
tough enough. Putin cannot afford to lose Ukraine and cannot afford to let
the country join the ranks of Western democracies," he said. "He needs an
isolated country. A Ukraine dominated by Russia would have to ask the
Kremlin's permission for any decision it wants to make, such as joining NATO
or the EU."

This is why Putin appeared on Ukrainian state television Tuesday, and why
the Kremlin is investing so much political capital in Sunday's election, the
experts said.
Putin is officially in Ukraine to attend celebrations for the 60th
anniversary of Kiev's liberation from Nazi Germany on Nov. 6, 1944. Moving
the festivities forward to Thursday, three days before the election, was a
clear PR stunt by the authorities, the experts said.

Russian political consultants have also flocked to Kiev to help Yanukovych's
campaign, with Kremlin insider and spin doctor Gleb Pavlovsky launching a
"Russian Club" in the city. Yanukovych's critics have described the club,
ostensibly a nongovernmental forum to discuss bilateral relations, as a
channel through which Moscow can influence the campaign.

The Russian Club has been active in organizing news conferences for
prominent Russian political figures coming to Kiev, and its activities have
received widespread coverage in the state-controlled media, which cover 98
percent of the country.

While both Yanukovych and Yushchenko talk about pursuing Ukraine's relations
with Russia, only Yanukovych has received the Kremlin's support, said
Alexander Dergachyov, editor of the online newspaper Transparent Policy, a
project financed by the Soros Foundation. This is because Yanukovych stands
for maintaining the status quo, while Yushchenko is for change, he said.

"Russia wants to have someone who will continue Kuchma's policies, and
Yanukovych is the right person. They are afraid of any changes," he said.
Nemyria said another factor playing to Yanukovych's advantage with the
Kremlin is predictability. "His point of view is more in line with Russia's
vision in this part of the world," he said.

Yushchenko, who says openly he is pro-Western, is not so predictable for
Russia, Nemyria said.

Under Yushchenko, Ukraine could have the chance to join NATO as soon as 2008
or 2010, and this is another concern for Russia, which is already concerned
about Baltic nations joining NATO, Nemyria said.

The Kremlin sees Yanukovych, on the other hand, as someone who would suit
Russia just fine. Yanukovych has said he will introduce dual
Ukrainian-Russian citizenship and give the Russian language, spoken by about
20 percent of the country's 48 million citizens, the status of an official
language. He is also calling for a policy of nonalignment, which would
reverse Ukraine's current course toward eventual NATO membership.

But Russia's backing for Yanukovych, while suiting the Kremlin politically,
could paradoxically act against Russian business interests in the country,
said Anders ??slund, director of the Russian and Eurasian program at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"After having defeated the oligarchs in Russia, Putin is supporting the
oligarchs in Ukraine. This does not make much sense," ??slund said.

Yanukovych, a former regional governor, hails from the Donetsk clan, one of
several geographically defined oligarchic groups that compete for domination
in Ukrainian business and politics. The clan, headed by Rynat Akhmetov, is
reputed to be the biggest private enterprise group throughout the CIS, and
employs about 500,000 people.

Yanukovych is thought to rank second in the Donetsk clan, after Akhmetov.

Since his appointment as prime minister in October 2002, Yanukovych has
generally blocked Russian businesses from making acquisitions in Ukraine,
the experts said. In fact, it was Yushchenko, who was prime minister from
December 1999 to April 2001, who allowed Russian companies to buy up large
enterprises in Ukraine.

"If Putin wanted to lobby for Russian business groups, he should have backed
Yushchenko," ??slund said. "Four big Russian oil companies bought refineries
in Ukraine while Yushchenko was prime minister. Yushchenko opened doors for
them."

By contrast, on Yanukovych's watch, last June Akhmetov and Viktor Pinchuk,
Kuchma's son-in-law and the head of the Dnipropetrovsk clan, bought a
state-owned steelworks in an auction where foreign bidders, including
Russians, offering two or three times as much were excluded.

"During Yushchenko's tenure, Russian businesses were among the players,"
Nemyria said. "There should have been a level playing field for everyone to
compete openly. If Yanukovych wins, there are expectations that Russian
businesses could get more privileges, but this is not necessary true."

??slund said that Putin does not completely understand the situation. "It
really seems that Putin is lost," ??slund said.

Putin is making his play for influence in Ukraine at the right time,
Polokhalo said, as both Europe and the United States are busy with their own
internal problems and are not paying enough attention to what is going on in
Ukraine.

"Western politicians keep on repeating that the elections should be fair.
That's all," he said. "Putin is using this vacuum that has been created
because the European Union is focused on its enlargement and the United
States on its own presidential election. Putin is using this indifference to
get political leverage in our country."