ANALYSIS-Ukraine role gives EU a place in Russia's backyard

By Sebastian Alison
Reuters
Updated: 7:55 a.m. ET Dec. 3, 2004


BRUSSELS - The European Union's mediation in Ukraine's political crisis has made it a foreign policy actor in territory long regarded by Russia as its own backyard and Moscow has no choice but to accept it, analysts say.

The EU's eastward expansion in May to the borders of the former Soviet Union sharpened tensions between Moscow and Brussels over what role, if any, the bloc should play in six former Soviet republics.

"The Russians still perceive it as their sphere of influence and would prefer not to have anyone from the EU," said Wojciech Saryusz-Wolski, analyst at the European Policy Centre.

The two giant trade partners have been trying to redefine their relations on the basis of four "common spaces," on the economy; freedom, security and justice; education and research; and external security.

The latter has been the most contentious, with the EU arguing that it has a role in what it terms their "common neighbourhood" -- Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, and the Caucasus republics of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Moscow rejects this, striking the term off an EU draft document outlining the external security "space", and sees all six as its "near abroad".

But apparently without trying, the EU has been swept into a negotiating role in the aftermath of the Nov. 21 presidential election runoff which left Ukraine in turmoil and rudderless.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski and Lithuanian President Valdas Adamkus have been mediating with Russia's Boris Gryzlov, speaker of the State Duma lower house of parliament, between Viktor Yanukovich and Viktor Yushchenko, both of whom claim victory in the poll.

The fact that Gryzlov is talking to the EU team means Russia is recognising de facto a role for the bloc -- and therefore that Ukraine is indeed in their common neighbourhood.

"They're forced at this point to this round table which in fact did not prove itself fruitful. They will pull back from any such move as soon as they can," Saryusz-Wolski said.


"THEY'RE THERE, AREN'T THEY"

Russia has not acknowledged a formal EU role, said Michael Emerson, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies, but its presence at the talks speaks for itself.

"They wouldn't say so, would they, but they're there, aren't they," he said.

He noted the difference with Moldova, where the EU has long sought a role in ending a "frozen conflict" in the breakaway Dnestr region.

In Moldova, talks have dragged on to no effect for years among Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, with the EU kept out.

"In Ukraine, hey presto, it just happened," Emerson said.

Even Solana's office was vague about how he got involved in the Kiev talks, saying he received no formal invitation but was suggested by Kwasniewski, who enjoys wide respect in Ukraine.

Emerson said Russian President Vladimir Putin faced a dilemma once the EU was involved -- sending his own envoy to the talks would recognise the EU's role, while staying away would deny Moscow a place at the table.

"Gryzlov has to be there because not being there would be even worse," he said. "On the other hand Putin could not be represented at a higher level. It's a major embarrassment."

He said Putin had scored "one own goal after another" in his policy towards Russia's closest neighbours, citing Moldova, a border dispute with Ukraine over a tiny island in the Kerch strait between the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, and support for a breakaway leader in the Georgian region of Abkhazia.

"At some point the Kremlin may have to think about whether they've got the right concept for near abroad policy," he said.

The EU acquired a role in Ukraine almost by accident and despite the fact that most of its members do not want Kiev to become a candidate for membership of the 25-nation bloc.

"Ever since Ukraine became independent, the EU has shown remarkably little interest in it," the London-based Centre for European Reform said in a briefing note.

But it is an attractive partner for Ukraine as it cares only that the election should be fair, and not who wins, it said -- unlike Moscow, which wants a leader in line with its interests.

"Whether this leader is elected, appointed or has fallen from space is immaterial to Moscow," CER said.

"In contrast, the EU ultimately cares little who is in charge in Ukraine -- or Belarus or Georgia -- provided that person gains legitimacy through fair elections and upholds Western standards of democracy and human rights."

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