DANGEROUS INDIFFERENCE IN RUSSIA

OP-ED: By Masha Lipman, The Washington Post
Washington, D.C., Wednesday, December 1, 2004; Page A25

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23724-2004Nov30.html

MOSCOW -- "I feel jealous and proud because I am standing amongst these peaceful and free people," wrote a journalist covering Ukraine's surging democracy movement. "I feel the ecstasy of revolution mixed with burning jealousy, for it will be a long time before I see anything like this in Moscow."

The writer, Valery Panyushkin, is one of Russia's most liberal journalists, and the jealousy he feels is widespread among his fellow supporters of democracy. It's been such a long time since we in Russia had enthusiastic, peaceful, happy crowds united by a desire for political change. It makes us especially envious to see so many young people passionate about their country's future, confident that they can and will shape it the way they believe is right.

Yet these sentiments exist among only a tiny fraction of Panyushkin's compatriots, and the number of those willing to express them in public is even smaller. By the end of the first week of the standoff in Ukraine, just small rally had been organized in Moscow in support of Ukrainian democracy.

In a poll conducted in Russia around the time of the runoff election, 34 percent said that if they could vote, it would be for Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, the government's man, while only 7 percent supported the opposition candidate, Viktor Yushchenko. Others had no preferences or no opinion. People in Russia don't seem to be emotionally involved in the
Ukrainian situation. About one-third said they were following the events, while more than 70 percent were uninterested or not especially focused.

This sort of indifference to dramatic events has become commonplace among the Russian people in recent years. The collapse of the Soviet superpower seems to have left them with a general feeling of apathy interrupted by occasional outbursts of frustration when they feel that their country is being ignored, shunned or pressured by the stronger West. Such was the reaction to the bombing of Yugoslavia, and also to what was regarded as unfair treatment of Russian athletes at the Winter Olympics in 2002, and to the launching of the war in Iraq.

In the absence of outright clashes with the West, however, the frustration and hostility subside. For while there is a desire among Russians that their country once again become a great power -- one that other nations fear -- and while the Russian public responds eagerly to rhetoric along those lines, there is also an unwillingness to invest personal energy or even passion in such efforts.

An apathetic public is easily manipulated, so in Russia, politics has been reduced to intimidating the elites. With no political competition left and no accountability, policymaking has increasingly relied on heavy-handed and simplistic methods and on irresponsible executors. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his aides can get away with almost anything without fear of having to deal with the consequences.

But in the matter of Ukraine, their methods have backfired. Russia's circumscribed vision and shortsighted strategy have only made things worse. Having put all his stakes on a Yanukovych victory and invested his authority in the Ukrainian presidential election, Putin was unprepared for an outcome that would go against him. His repeated congratulations to Yanukovych, at a
time when the results of the runoff were losing their legitimacy even in the eyes of the Ukrainian government, showed that he had no exit strategy and had lost touch with reality.

Putin's role in the Ukrainian vote gave rise to anti-Russian sentiments among the Ukrainian people and deepened the rift with the West. His failure in Ukraine is sure to raise the temptation for the Kremlin to appeal to Russian nationalism by portraying the events there as a Western plot against Russia. This fall Putin has been talking vaguely about Western "agents" seeking to weaken Russia -- rhetoric that is eagerly taken up by Kremlin aides and servile journalists. Already, a Russian public relations specialist who handled the Kremlin effort in the Ukrainian election has warned that unless Russia stands up to the West in Ukraine, the West will soon be staging the same scenario in Russia itself.

During his time in office, Putin has never abandoned the idea that Russia's modernization is impossible without Western investment and technologies, and he has avoided capitalizing on anti-Western sentiment. If the need to cover up his failure in Ukraine pushes him to opt for such nationalist policy, it could put an end to what's left of Russia's modernization efforts.

The events in Ukraine evolved as a challenge to the Russian government, one that Moscow has proved unable to handle. Yet so far the incompetence of the government has failed to bring forth any cohesive civic effort from the people. Russian liberals may sigh enviously and hope that the democratic wave will someday reach their country. But, as in Ukraine, it won't happen until the public demands it.

The writer, editor of the Carnegie Moscow Center's Pro et Contra journal,
writes a monthly column for The Post.