Russia's Putin eyes Ukraine citizenship

By The Associated Press
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/495439.html
MOSCOW - President Vladimir Putin yesterday asked senior Russian lawmakers to begin talks with their Ukrainian counterparts on introducing dual citizenship between the countries.

Putin's request came a day before Ukrainians vote in a presidential election that is being viewed as a test of democracy in the former Soviet republic and an indicator of whether Ukraine will strengthen its historical links with
neighboring Russia or push for closer integration with the West.

Putin went to Ukraine last week on a visit that many saw as an endorsement of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, who is in a neck-and-neck race with Viktor Yushchenko, a former prime minister who touts reforms and is seen as pro-Western.

It is time "to return once again to this issue," Putin told State Duma speaker Boris Gryzlov and Sergei Mironov, head of the upper house, the Federation Council, citing "that special character between our countries whose people for many hundreds of years lived in a united state, as well as ethnic, religious, cultural and language similarities."

Dual citizenship would likely be of greater benefit to Ukrainians, who would get the right to work in Russia, where the salaries are higher and the opportunities are greater.

Ukraine already has a massive ethnic Russian population - 22 percent - and close to half the nation's 48 million people say they feel more comfortable speaking Russian than Ukrainian. Although people in the country's western half favor the Ukrainian language and tend to see Ukraine's future linked to the West, the eastern half's population leans more toward Russia.

Mironov and Gryzlov both gave early support to Putin's request. However, they noted that issues such as military service and voting rights would have to be considered.

The Russian parliament is dominated by pro-Putin supporters, and the president has little trouble pushing through his legislative proposals.

Meanwhile, Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev told Putin yesterday that plans were dropped to require Ukrainian and Russians to present foreign passports when traveling between the two nations; instead, residents will be able to continue using their internal identity documents.

Zhirinovsky hopes for Yanukovych's victory in Ukrainian vote

http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/28.html?menu=1&id_issue=10715597

 

Oct 28 2004 6:31PM

Zhirinovsky hopes for Yanukovych's victory in Ukrainian vote

MOSCOW. Oct 28 (Interfax) - Russian State Duma Deputy Speaker Vladimir Zhirinovsky hopes that Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych will win the presidential elections in the first round.

"I am confident that he [Yanukovych] will win. I hope this will happen in the first round as the second round is not desirable. But there are reasons to hope that Yanukovych will win in the first round," Zhirinovsky told a news conference in Moscow on Thursday.

Yanukovych's victory in the presidential elections will help make relations between Ukraine and Russia better, he said.

If you think the U.S. election is nasty, take a look at this one.

http://slate.msn.com/id/2108758/

 

The Campaign in Ukraine
If you think the U.S. election is nasty, take a look at this one.
By Kim Iskyan
Posted Wednesday, Oct. 27, 2004, at 12:15 PM PT

The U.S. version of negative campaigning sounds like shrill sandbox shouting compared with the ongoing presidential campaign in Ukraine, the most important European country that's on no one's geopolitical map. Instead of Willie Horton and the Swift Boat Veterans, consider bogus egg attacks, an opposition candidate with serious food poisoning, and a rash of well-timed car crashes.

There's no room for schadenfreude, though. The Oct. 31 presidential elections in Ukraine, a country roughly twice the size of New Mexico lodged in a historical buffer zone between Poland and Russia, could well be critical to defining the future of the balance of power in Europe, and of Russia's lingering imperial ambitions. It will also decide the fate of Ukraine's 50 million citizens and of democracy in a sleeping European giant.

But the rest of Europe doesn't want a needy new friend at its far frontiers??even one that is a critical conduit for the oil and gas from Russia that keeps the lights on throughout the continent. The United States, preoccupied with Iraq, is similarly ignoring Ukraine.

Not too long ago, Ukraine (forget the definite article) was the breadbasket of the Soviet Union, accounting for more than a quarter of the total agricultural output of the former Evil Empire. But, as with the rest of the former Soviet Union, the music stopped for Ukraine when the hammer and sickle lost their luster. Despite a recent run of strong growth, including an estimated 12 percent jump in 2004, Ukraine's still-minuscule GDP amounts to less than one-third of the annual revenues of General Motors. On a per capita basis, Ukraine bats around the level of Honduras.

Things looked more promising in 1994, when Ukraine was the first post-Soviet state to peacefully transfer presidential power. But the government of outgoing President Leonid Kuchma, which won re-election in 1999, has done Ukraine few favors, defaulting to Third World standards of corruption, incompetence, and all-around disregard for the country's best interests. A merry-go-round of prime ministers has sapped public confidence in his administration, as politicking has taken precedence over governance. Transparency International ranks the country 122^nd??out of 145 countries surveyed??in its Corruption Perceptions Index, a record that puts it on par with Sudan. One of the Kuchma regime's low points was when a man sounding very much like the president was surreptitiously recorded discussing??using memorably foul language??ways to do away with a troublesome journalist. Kuchma weathered days of noisy mass protests after the reporter's mutilated body was discovered. Needless to say, the murderer has yet to be found. (For more on the slain journalist, see this "Foreigners" column from December 2000.)

Politics and big business are incestuously intertwined in Ukraine, with competing clans of oligarchs vying for power in the country's parliament. Kuchma has survived, despite approval ratings in the mid-single digits, in part by playing the country's big businessmen off against each other and by allowing them to enrich themselves through acquiring state-owned assets worth billions. Pro-Kuchma forces are unified by the fear of losing their ill-gotten gains if the president's choice for the country's highest office, current Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, doesn't win the upcoming election.

The principal opposition candidate is Viktor Yushenko, prime minister a few years back and a rare spark of hope during Kuchma's regime. Yushenko, lauded for his economic reform programs, was kicked out by Kuchma for supporting the wrong group of oligarchs. He has built his support base by managing to appeal to a range of interest groups that have little in common other than not being in power, by promising to make Ukraine a more democratic society and ending the culture of cronyism and corruption.

Kuchma and the anxious oligarchs in his corner have ensured that Ukraine's (largely state-controlled) airwaves are unapologetically all-Yanukovych, all the time. The full weight of so-called "administrative resources"??i.e., every level of the supposedly apolitical governmental structure??is being brought to bear upon the election through, for example, leaning on the media, advising government employees and the military how they will be expected to vote, and redefining pork-barrel politics. Nearly three-quarters of the country's pensioners will receive a little something extra in their October checks, courtesy of the government. In May, Anders Aslund of the Carnegie Endowment estimated that the total cost of the Ukrainian election will be roughly in the range of $200 million to $300 million (a significant portion funded by Russian companies operating in Ukraine). That may not sound like so much??it's comparable to George Bush's re-election campaign??but it's an enormous sum in the context of the $10 billion total government operating budget.

After years of halfheartedly trying to increase the country's integration with the West, in recent months??tired of being ignored??Kuchma appeared to surrender in favor of drawing closer to Russia. Eager to preserve what is left of its rapidly dissipating former empire??particularly following the May 1, 2004, accession of much of Central Europe and the Baltics to the European Union??and to prevent NATO from continuing its slow eastward creep, Russia has thrown its considerable heft behind Yanukovych, rather than the more westward-leaning Yushenko. In a country that followed the Russian lead during the 70 or so years of communism, and where 17 percent of the population is ethnically Russian, the opinion of the big brother to the east matters.

So, Russian President Vladimir Putin has cozied up to Kuchma and his prime minister, inviting them to his Moscow dacha for an ostensibly private birthday celebration and making frequent appearances in Kiev. Earlier this week, he appeared in a live question-and-answer session on Ukrainian television. Pro-Yanukovych posters dot downtown Moscow, and Putin sent Kremlin spin doctors to help Yanukovych.

Kuchma, and now Yanukovych, play hardball in a way that makes Karl Rove look like a swing-set schemer. Over the past several years, political rivals who were inconvenient to Kuchma??such as the arms export chief, a prominent parliamentarian, a deputy head of the central bank, and a half-dozen or so others??have been killed in suspicious auto accidents. In a fresh twist, in early September, Yushenko was taken ill with what appeared to be severe food poisoning (allegedly after dining with the head of the Ukrainian security service). After a two-week recovery at a clinic in Austria, Yushenko claimed that the powers-that-be had tried to kill him.

Days later, the clinic supposedly issued a statement claiming that Yushenko had not been poisoned, triggering predictably widespread condemnation of the candidate and calls for him to quit the race altogether. But a week later, the statement was revealed to be a fake, ostensibly disseminated by pro-Yanukovych forces.

Meanwhile, in an apparent effort to divert attention from Yushenko, the Yanukovych camp suffered its own assassination attempt??though it may have been of its own creation. During a campaign stop, the prime minister was struck in the head by what his campaign later called a blunt metal object. Yanukovych??clutching, strangely, his chest, according to press reports??fell into the arms of aides and was taken to a local hospital. A video replay suggests that he had been hit by nothing more lethal than an egg, rendering accusations of attempted assassination overblown at best.

Political games aside, what's next for Ukraine? Given the advantages enjoyed by Yanukovych??media control, massive state spending, and efforts to stifle the opposition, for starters??it is already clear that Ukraine's elections will be far from free and fair. Instead, the question??as has often been the case in the former Soviet Union??is how blatantly the polls will be rigged, and how noisy the resultant protests will be.

Julia Tymoshenko, a prominent opposition leader, has warned that Ukraine could follow the path of fellow post-Soviet state Georgia, which last year ousted its president in a popular coup following crooked elections. Western governments and nongovernmental organizations have predictably raised the decibel level on their warnings that the election will be an important test of the future of democracy in Ukraine. But by sending 1,600 Ukrainian troops to Iraq, Kuchma has ensured a measure of political protection against too much??U.S.-generated, at least??tut-tutting about a fraudulent vote.

In some ways, very little will change in Ukraine, regardless of who wins on Oct. 31, or in the likely Nov. 21 runoff vote if no candidate receives a majority of the vote. Since Ukraine receives the vast bulk of its energy needs from Russia, Moscow will always be a foreign policy centerpiece. Similarly, while the European Union hasn't been overly accommodating, Ukraine can hardly afford to turn its back on the world's largest trading block, and Ukraine's next president will need to continue to navigate a fine line between Mother Russia and Europe. The pace of reform will either be slow, under Yushenko??who would have to make too many compromises, particularly to nationalist-leaning supporters, to be particularly effective??or very slow, under Yanukovych, who is likely to remain under the thumb of the country's backroom power brokers. And democracy will remain a largely foreign concept, particularly with an increasingly authoritarian Russia (not to mention international pariah Belarus) on Ukraine's doorstep.

Real change??in Ukraine, and throughout the former Soviet Union??may well have to wait for the generation that still carries the legacy of the USSR to pass away. In the meantime, most likely, is more of the same old borscht.

Kim Iskyan is a freelance journalist.

A presidential race again pits Russia against the West

A presidential race again pits Russia against the West
27 October 2004 16:45

It's a shadow war reminiscent of cold-war conflicts in Third World
countries. Russia and the United States are going head to head in Ukraine,
the former Soviet republic that holds a pivotal presidential election on
Oct. 31.
The two sides' arsenals don't include Kalashnikovs or Stinger missiles
anymore. Rather, dollars from Washington and political advisers from Moscow
are the weapons of choice.

The battlelines could not be starker, nor could the stakes be much
higher--for Ukraine or the region. Of 24 candidates, only two have a chance.
One: Viktor Yanukovych, the current prime minister (and protege; of the
retiring President Leonid Kuchma), who pledges close ties to Moscow. The
other: Viktor Yushchenko, who vows to attack corruption and take the country
further toward democracy. The reform-minded Yushchenko is the darling of the
West. Yanukovych has the support of the country's powerful business clans
and the security forces, as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin. "For
Ukraine," says opposition parliamentarian Pyotr Poroshenko, "this is a
crucial test."
It promises to be bruising--and dirty. International watchdog groups accuse
the government of preparing to rig the vote. The state has used tax laws to
harass Yushchenko and his supporters. Opposition campaign events have been
disrupted, and pro-Yanukovych propaganda flows from state-controlled
Ukrainian and Russian television stations. Employing tactics imported by
their Russian political consultants, top government officials deliver daily
instructions--temnyki --to news executives concerning what issues to cover
and how. "The temnyki are our work," boasts Sergei Markov, a Kremlin adviser
to Yanukovych.
More brutal Soviet-style tactics are also coming into play. Earlier this
fall Yushchenko was apparently poisoned. "They were absolutely trying to
kill him," says an aide, who rushed with him to a Vienna hospital. State
courts are now threatening to close the country's last independent TV
station, which supports Yushchenko. Meanwhile, Putin--hugely popular in
Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine--has all but endorsed Yanukovych,
announcing he would come to Kiev just three days before the vote.
Western NGOs are working hard--and spending freely--to ensure the election
is fair. Just last Friday special police raided several of their offices.
"Before today I was reasonably optimistic about the election," says Sam
Coppersmith, a former U.S. congressman working with the U.S.-Ukraine
Foundation.
Given a free choice, most Ukrainians would probably opt for closer ties to
the West. Ukraine contributes 1,600 troops to the U.S.-led occupation in
Iraq. Kuchma has said he would like to see the country join both NATO and
the EU, which it now borders. But the fact that those doors seem closed has
hurt Yushchenko's cause--and strengthened those like Yanukovych who
gravitate toward the East. Russia's interests in Ukraine are apparent.
Sevastopol is home to its Black Sea Fleet; most of its western-bound
natural-gas pipelines pass through Ukraine. Its membership in the Moscow-led
Commonwealth of Independent States, a loose union of former Soviet
republics, lends substance to Russia's lingering dream of empire.
If Yanukovych wins, there will be widespread accusations that he stole the
election, much in the manner of the stage-managed referendum by which
President Aleksandr Lukashenko of Belarus granted himself the right to run
for another term last week. The results could be bloody. Ukrainian youth
organizations plan to put 50,000 demonstrators on the streets of Kiev on
election night. If that doesn't help produce an honest result, they will
mobilize as many as 2 million protesters, hoping for a repeat of the Rose
Revolution in Georgia last year that overthrew the regime of President
Eduard Shevardnadze. The government says it will forcibly put down unrest.
Whatever happens, Ukraine's election will set a new standard of democracy,
either higher or lower, for post-communist states. "I'm not suggesting that
Mr. Yanukovych is another Milosevic, but if he is beholden to [the security
forces of Russia and Ukraine] for winning this election, it will be a very
bad precedent," says Adrian Karatnycky at Freedom House, an NGO that will
send 1,000 election observers for a likely second round on Nov. 21. The
battle has begun.
Source: Newsweek

Putin's Campaign Has Kiev on Edge

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/10/28/001.html
Thursday, October 28, 2004. Page 1.
Putin's Campaign Has Kiev on Edge
By Francesca Mereu

Staff Writer KIEV -- President Vladimir Putin's high-profile support for
Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych during his visit to Ukraine this week,
ahead of Sunday's close-run presidential election, is raising fears in Kiev
that Russia plans to increase its influence over the country.

Putin's support for Yanukovych, whom President Leonid Kuchma is backing to
succeed him, is a vital part of Putin's "strong state" project, since part
of his authority in Russia relies on the perceived restoration of the
country as a superpower, Ukrainian political analysts said.

To achieve its aim, Moscow could be using a window of opportunity while the
West is temporarily distracted -- the United States by its own presidential
election, and Europe by a dispute over the makeup of the European
Commission -- to influence the outcome of Sunday's vote, experts said.

With just days to go before the election, polls continue to put Yanukovych
and the main opposition candidate, liberal Viktor Yushchenko, neck-and-neck
in the race for the support of the country's 36 million registered voters.
Most analysts predict the election will go to a runoff between the two on
Nov. 14.
Since 1994, when Kuchma came to power, the Kremlin has endorsed its favored
candidate in Ukrainian elections. This time, however, the Kremlin has gone a
step further, backing a plan to hand over power to Kuchma's designated
successor and stop Yushchenko, a former prime minister and Central Bank
chairman, from winning.

"If Putin succeeds in getting his candidate elected, he would feel pretty
safe to continue trying to restore Russia's great-power status," said
Hryhoriy Nemyria, director of the Kiev-based Center for European and
International Studies. "A significant part of Putin's legitimacy lies in his
ability to control developments in Russia's 'near abroad.'

"But if he fails -- and Ukraine is a key test in this -- Putin's legitimacy
in the eyes of Russians would be undermined, not critically, but
significantly," he said.
Vladimir Polokhalo, an independent political analyst at the World Economy
and International Relations Institute of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences,
agreed. He said that Russia "is building an authoritarian regime" and needs
Ukraine as part of the plan.

"If Putin loses Ukraine, his voters would blame him for not having been
tough enough. Putin cannot afford to lose Ukraine and cannot afford to let
the country join the ranks of Western democracies," he said. "He needs an
isolated country. A Ukraine dominated by Russia would have to ask the
Kremlin's permission for any decision it wants to make, such as joining NATO
or the EU."

This is why Putin appeared on Ukrainian state television Tuesday, and why
the Kremlin is investing so much political capital in Sunday's election, the
experts said.
Putin is officially in Ukraine to attend celebrations for the 60th
anniversary of Kiev's liberation from Nazi Germany on Nov. 6, 1944. Moving
the festivities forward to Thursday, three days before the election, was a
clear PR stunt by the authorities, the experts said.

Russian political consultants have also flocked to Kiev to help Yanukovych's
campaign, with Kremlin insider and spin doctor Gleb Pavlovsky launching a
"Russian Club" in the city. Yanukovych's critics have described the club,
ostensibly a nongovernmental forum to discuss bilateral relations, as a
channel through which Moscow can influence the campaign.

The Russian Club has been active in organizing news conferences for
prominent Russian political figures coming to Kiev, and its activities have
received widespread coverage in the state-controlled media, which cover 98
percent of the country.

While both Yanukovych and Yushchenko talk about pursuing Ukraine's relations
with Russia, only Yanukovych has received the Kremlin's support, said
Alexander Dergachyov, editor of the online newspaper Transparent Policy, a
project financed by the Soros Foundation. This is because Yanukovych stands
for maintaining the status quo, while Yushchenko is for change, he said.

"Russia wants to have someone who will continue Kuchma's policies, and
Yanukovych is the right person. They are afraid of any changes," he said.
Nemyria said another factor playing to Yanukovych's advantage with the
Kremlin is predictability. "His point of view is more in line with Russia's
vision in this part of the world," he said.

Yushchenko, who says openly he is pro-Western, is not so predictable for
Russia, Nemyria said.

Under Yushchenko, Ukraine could have the chance to join NATO as soon as 2008
or 2010, and this is another concern for Russia, which is already concerned
about Baltic nations joining NATO, Nemyria said.

The Kremlin sees Yanukovych, on the other hand, as someone who would suit
Russia just fine. Yanukovych has said he will introduce dual
Ukrainian-Russian citizenship and give the Russian language, spoken by about
20 percent of the country's 48 million citizens, the status of an official
language. He is also calling for a policy of nonalignment, which would
reverse Ukraine's current course toward eventual NATO membership.

But Russia's backing for Yanukovych, while suiting the Kremlin politically,
could paradoxically act against Russian business interests in the country,
said Anders ??slund, director of the Russian and Eurasian program at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"After having defeated the oligarchs in Russia, Putin is supporting the
oligarchs in Ukraine. This does not make much sense," ??slund said.

Yanukovych, a former regional governor, hails from the Donetsk clan, one of
several geographically defined oligarchic groups that compete for domination
in Ukrainian business and politics. The clan, headed by Rynat Akhmetov, is
reputed to be the biggest private enterprise group throughout the CIS, and
employs about 500,000 people.

Yanukovych is thought to rank second in the Donetsk clan, after Akhmetov.

Since his appointment as prime minister in October 2002, Yanukovych has
generally blocked Russian businesses from making acquisitions in Ukraine,
the experts said. In fact, it was Yushchenko, who was prime minister from
December 1999 to April 2001, who allowed Russian companies to buy up large
enterprises in Ukraine.

"If Putin wanted to lobby for Russian business groups, he should have backed
Yushchenko," ??slund said. "Four big Russian oil companies bought refineries
in Ukraine while Yushchenko was prime minister. Yushchenko opened doors for
them."

By contrast, on Yanukovych's watch, last June Akhmetov and Viktor Pinchuk,
Kuchma's son-in-law and the head of the Dnipropetrovsk clan, bought a
state-owned steelworks in an auction where foreign bidders, including
Russians, offering two or three times as much were excluded.

"During Yushchenko's tenure, Russian businesses were among the players,"
Nemyria said. "There should have been a level playing field for everyone to
compete openly. If Yanukovych wins, there are expectations that Russian
businesses could get more privileges, but this is not necessary true."

??slund said that Putin does not completely understand the situation. "It
really seems that Putin is lost," ??slund said.

Putin is making his play for influence in Ukraine at the right time,
Polokhalo said, as both Europe and the United States are busy with their own
internal problems and are not paying enough attention to what is going on in
Ukraine.

"Western politicians keep on repeating that the elections should be fair.
That's all," he said. "Putin is using this vacuum that has been created
because the European Union is focused on its enlargement and the United
States on its own presidential election. Putin is using this indifference to
get political leverage in our country."

If you think the U.S. election is nasty, take a look at this one

The Campaign in Ukraine
If you think the U.S. election is nasty, take a look at this one.
By Kim Iskyan
Posted Wednesday, Oct. 27, 2004, at 12:15 PM PT

The U.S. version of negative campaigning sounds like shrill sandbox shouting compared with the ongoing presidential campaign in Ukraine, the most important European country that's on no one's geopolitical map. Instead of Willie Horton and the Swift Boat Veterans, consider bogus egg attacks, an opposition candidate with serious food poisoning, and a rash of well-timed car crashes.

There's no room for schadenfreude, though. The Oct. 31 presidential elections in Ukraine, a country roughly twice the size of New Mexico lodged in a historical buffer zone between Poland and Russia, could well be critical to defining the future of the balance of power in Europe, and of Russia's lingering imperial ambitions. It will also decide the fate of Ukraine's 50 million citizens and of democracy in a sleeping European giant.

But the rest of Europe doesn't want a needy new friend at its far frontiers??even one that is a critical conduit for the oil and gas from Russia that keeps the lights on throughout the continent. The United States, preoccupied with Iraq, is similarly ignoring Ukraine.

Not too long ago, Ukraine (forget the definite article) was the breadbasket of the Soviet Union, accounting for more than a quarter of the total agricultural output of the former Evil Empire. But, as with the rest of the former Soviet Union, the music stopped for Ukraine when the hammer and sickle lost their luster. Despite a recent run of strong growth, including an estimated 12 percent jump in 2004, Ukraine's still-minuscule GDP amounts to less than one-third of the annual revenues of General Motors. On a per capita basis, Ukraine bats around the level of Honduras.

Things looked more promising in 1994, when Ukraine was the first post-Soviet state to peacefully transfer presidential power. But the government of outgoing President Leonid Kuchma, which won re-election in 1999, has done Ukraine few favors, defaulting to Third World standards of corruption, incompetence, and all-around disregard for the country's best interests. A merry-go-round of prime ministers has sapped public confidence in his administration, as politicking has taken precedence over governance. Transparency International ranks the country 122^nd??out of 145 countries surveyed??in its Corruption Perceptions Index, a record that puts it on par with Sudan. One of the Kuchma regime's low points was when a man sounding very much like the president was surreptitiously recorded discussing??using memorably foul language??ways to do away with a troublesome journalist. Kuchma weathered days of noisy mass protests after the reporter's mutilated body was discovered. Needless to say, the murderer has yet to be found. (For more on the slain journalist, see this "Foreigners" column from December 2000.)

Politics and big business are incestuously intertwined in Ukraine, with competing clans of oligarchs vying for power in the country's parliament. Kuchma has survived, despite approval ratings in the mid-single digits, in part by playing the country's big businessmen off against each other and by allowing them to enrich themselves through acquiring state-owned assets worth billions. Pro-Kuchma forces are unified by the fear of losing their ill-gotten gains if the president's choice for the country's highest office, current Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, doesn't win the upcoming election.

The principal opposition candidate is Viktor Yushenko, prime minister a few years back and a rare spark of hope during Kuchma's regime. Yushenko, lauded for his economic reform programs, was kicked out by Kuchma for supporting the wrong group of oligarchs. He has built his support base by managing to appeal to a range of interest groups that have little in common other than not being in power, by promising to make Ukraine a more democratic society and ending the culture of cronyism and corruption.

Kuchma and the anxious oligarchs in his corner have ensured that Ukraine's (largely state-controlled) airwaves are unapologetically all-Yanukovych, all the time. The full weight of so-called "administrative resources"??i.e., every level of the supposedly apolitical governmental structure??is being brought to bear upon the election through, for example, leaning on the media, advising government employees and the military how they will be expected to vote, and redefining pork-barrel politics. Nearly three-quarters of the country's pensioners will receive a little something extra in their October checks, courtesy of the government. In May, Anders Aslund of the Carnegie Endowment estimated that the total cost of the Ukrainian election will be roughly in the range of $200 million to $300 million (a significant portion funded by Russian companies operating in Ukraine). That may not sound like so much??it's comparable to George Bush's re-election campaign??but it's an enormous sum in the context of the $10 billion total government operating budget.

After years of halfheartedly trying to increase the country's integration with the West, in recent months??tired of being ignored??Kuchma appeared to surrender in favor of drawing closer to Russia. Eager to preserve what is left of its rapidly dissipating former empire??particularly following the May 1, 2004, accession of much of Central Europe and the Baltics to the European Union??and to prevent NATO from continuing its slow eastward creep, Russia has thrown its considerable heft behind Yanukovych, rather than the more westward-leaning Yushenko. In a country that followed the Russian lead during the 70 or so years of communism, and where 17 percent of the population is ethnically Russian, the opinion of the big brother to the east matters.

So, Russian President Vladimir Putin has cozied up to Kuchma and his prime minister, inviting them to his Moscow dacha for an ostensibly private birthday celebration and making frequent appearances in Kiev. Earlier this week, he appeared in a live question-and-answer session on Ukrainian television. Pro-Yanukovych posters dot downtown Moscow, and Putin sent Kremlin spin doctors to help Yanukovych.

Kuchma, and now Yanukovych, play hardball in a way that makes Karl Rove look like a swing-set schemer. Over the past several years, political rivals who were inconvenient to Kuchma??such as the arms export chief, a prominent parliamentarian, a deputy head of the central bank, and a half-dozen or so others??have been killed in suspicious auto accidents. In a fresh twist, in early September, Yushenko was taken ill with what appeared to be severe food poisoning (allegedly after dining with the head of the Ukrainian security service). After a two-week recovery at a clinic in Austria, Yushenko claimed that the powers-that-be had tried to kill him.

Days later, the clinic supposedly issued a statement claiming that Yushenko had not been poisoned, triggering predictably widespread condemnation of the candidate and calls for him to quit the race altogether. But a week later, the statement was revealed to be a fake, ostensibly disseminated by pro-Yanukovych forces.

Meanwhile, in an apparent effort to divert attention from Yushenko, the Yanukovych camp suffered its own assassination attempt??though it may have been of its own creation. During a campaign stop, the prime minister was struck in the head by what his campaign later called a blunt metal object. Yanukovych??clutching, strangely, his chest, according to press reports??fell into the arms of aides and was taken to a local hospital. A video replay suggests that he had been hit by nothing more lethal than an egg, rendering accusations of attempted assassination overblown at best.

Political games aside, what's next for Ukraine? Given the advantages enjoyed by Yanukovych??media control, massive state spending, and efforts to stifle the opposition, for starters??it is already clear that Ukraine's elections will be far from free and fair. Instead, the question??as has often been the case in the former Soviet Union??is how blatantly the polls will be rigged, and how noisy the resultant protests will be.

Julia Tymoshenko, a prominent opposition leader, has warned that Ukraine could follow the path of fellow post-Soviet state Georgia, which last year ousted its president in a popular coup following crooked elections. Western governments and nongovernmental organizations have predictably raised the decibel level on their warnings that the election will be an important test of the future of democracy in Ukraine. But by sending 1,600 Ukrainian troops to Iraq, Kuchma has ensured a measure of political protection against too much??U.S.-generated, at least??tut-tutting about a fraudulent vote.

In some ways, very little will change in Ukraine, regardless of who wins on Oct. 31, or in the likely Nov. 21 runoff vote if no candidate receives a majority of the vote. Since Ukraine receives the vast bulk of its energy needs from Russia, Moscow will always be a foreign policy centerpiece. Similarly, while the European Union hasn't been overly accommodating, Ukraine can hardly afford to turn its back on the world's largest trading block, and Ukraine's next president will need to continue to navigate a fine line between Mother Russia and Europe. The pace of reform will either be slow, under Yushenko??who would have to make too many compromises, particularly to nationalist-leaning supporters, to be particularly effective??or very slow, under Yanukovych, who is likely to remain under the thumb of the country's backroom power brokers. And democracy will remain a largely foreign concept, particularly with an increasingly authoritarian Russia (not to mention international pariah Belarus) on Ukraine's doorstep.

Real change??in Ukraine, and throughout the former Soviet Union??may well have to wait for the generation that still carries the legacy of the USSR to pass away. In the meantime, most likely, is more of the same old borscht.

Kim Iskyan is a freelance journalist.

Ukrainian Candidate Vows to Protest Any Voting Fraud

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aj1kwcZal1LY&refer=eur
ope

Ukrainian Candidate Vows to Protest Any Voting Fraud (Update1)

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko,
who polls show is the frontrunner to succeed Leonid Kuchma, said he'll urge
supporters to stage protests on any signs of electoral fraud in the vote
beginning Oct. 31.
Yushchenko, 50, Ukraine's prime minister from 2000 to 2001, says he was
poisoned during the campaign. International observers from the European
Union and other groups will monitor the election amid accusations by
opposition parties that Kuchma's administration will try to prevent a fair
vote.
``We can change the current circumstances only by massive public action,''
said Yushchenko in an interview in his office in Kiev. ``And in case of
attempts to falsify the outcome of the vote, I will be calling on the nation
to do that.''
Ukraine, the world's sixth-biggest producer of wheat and second-biggest
exporter of coke, is also the conduit for gas and oil exported from Russia
to the rest of Europe. Russia supplies about a quarter of the gas consumed
in western Europe and has agreed to use Ukrainian pipelines through 2013.
With a population of 47 million, Ukraine ranked 122 out of 145 countries in
Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index for 2004, trailing
Uzbekistan and Zimbabwe. Human Rights Watch said Kuchma's administration
``blatantly violates freedom of expression'' in the media. The International
Monetary Fund hasn't lent Ukraine money since 2001, when the fund said
Kuchma's government failed to honor its agreements.
Poll Lead
In the election for the third Ukrainian president since the country won
independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Yushchenko would win 34 percent
of the vote, according to a poll conducted in the first two weeks of
September by the Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Socios Center.
Current Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, 54, would take 28 percent, the
poll found.
Yushchenko would win 43 percent of the vote in a second round, while
Yanukovych would get 36 percent, the poll of 2,000 respondents showed. The
poll, conducted nationwide between Sept. 1 and Sept. 16, had a margin of
error of 2.2 percentage points. The second round of balloting will be held
at least two weeks from Oct. 31 if no candidate wins a majority.
Yushchenko and his supporters accuse the government of trying to prevent him
from campaigning and poisoning him. Yushchenko fell ill in September and was
treated in Austria. Ukraine's Prosecutor General office closed a two-week
investigation, saying it didn't have any proof he was poisoned. Yushchenko's
face is still swollen and his skin is damaged. The government denies any
wrongdoing.
Protest Marches
In Kiev, the country's wealthiest city with a population of 3 million, as
many as 100,000 people marched through the city center in support of
Yushchenko on Oct. 22. His opponent Yanukovych is seeking a special ruling
from the Central Electoral Committee to ban street protests on the day of
the election, according to 5 Kanal television, the country's only
independent broadcaster, which is threatened by closure by the government.
``The nation is at a very important point and the best choice would be to
let it choose,'' Yushchenko said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday praised Yanukovych for his record
in promoting economic growth, calling him and Kuchma his ``friends.''
While saying he regrets the collapse of the Soviet Union, Putin, 52, called
any attempts to restore the former superpower ``counterproductive'' and said
there's no plan for the re- unification of former Soviet republics.
Investigation Promised
Yushchenko said he would investigate Kuchma's administration, which he and
other opposition politicians accuse of involvement in the murder of
journalists and illegal sales of state assets, should he win the election.
Kuchma denies the accusations.
``I'm convinced that people must know the truth, including the case of
Georgy Gongadze,'' an independent journalist whose headless body was found
in forest near Kiev in 2000, Yushchenko said. ``I won't be trying to stop
legal processes that would give true answers to one or another of
questions.''
Yushchenko also said he would withdraw Ukrainian troops that are serving in
Iraq following the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, a move that is also supported
by Yanukovych.
The IMF predicts that Ukraine's $50 billion economy will grow as much as
12.5% this year, the fifth consecutive year of expansion, supported by
rising domestic demand and gains in prices of commodity exports including
metals and coke.
Ukraine, which was the world's sixth-biggest exporter of wheat in 2002,
expects to begin exporting as much as 9 million metric tons of grain again
this year after losing most of its 2003 crop to bad weather.
Kuchma's Candidate
Kuchma, 66, is backing Yanukovych after deciding not to run for a third
five-year term. Kuchma took office in 1994, promising to make Russian the
official language of Ukraine, which borders Russia to the east, Belarus to
the north and Slovakia, Poland and Moldova to the west and south.
Yushchenko was ousted as prime minister in 2001 by parliament with Kuchma's
backing. He set up Our Ukraine, a group of opposition parties that won
parliamentary elections in March 2002 and remains the largest group in the
450-seat parliament. In Ukraine, the president nominates the prime minister
and most of the government and the parliament approves or reject the
requests.
Yushchenko won praise from the IMF, World Bank and EU for his efforts to cut
bureaucracy, reduce corruption and improve relations with other nations
during his term as prime minister.
He said in the interview he would speed up asset sales, cut taxes and
consider rescheduling some government debts to help sustain economic growth
and improve living standards if elected.
``For me and my government, the most important thing will be not how to get
back to 1991 and start privatization from scratch, but how to improve
relations between the state and business,'' Yushchenko said. ``There should
be new rules of conduct. Business should trust the government and the
government should secure the rule of law.''

Ukraine braces for tense election

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1028/p06s01-woeu.html
from the October 28, 2004 edition

Ukraine braces for tense election
First round of voting this Sunday offers divided electorate stark choices between East and West.
By Fred Weir Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

KIEV, UKRAINE – Earlier this month, Ivan Parasunko's chickens, two pigs, and a horse dropped dead on his little farm in Ukraine's Cherkass region. A crudely scrawled note found at the scene confirmed evidence of poisoning: "This will happen to all of you."

For Mr. Parasunko, this was the cost of backing Western-minded opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine's tense presidential race.

He suspects supporters of the government-backed front-runner, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, may have been trying to intimidate him. "I don't have any enemies around here, so what else could it be?" he asks.

Livestock aren't the only casualties in a race that analysts are labeling the dirtiest campaign - and the most crucial choice - in Ukraine's post-Soviet history.

Ukraine is a quintessential 50/50 nation. Its population of 50 million is divided between the passionately nationalist western provinces and overwhelmingly Russified eastern ones.
For more than a decade, Ukraine has balanced precariously between the conflicting appeals of Moscow - which provides subsidized energy and raw materials - and the promise of integration with the European Union (EU) and NATO.

But with an increasingly authoritarian Kremlin now pushing its own plan for economic union, and domestic reforms stalled, experts say the hour of choice has arrived for the country.
"There are stark and essential differences between the two main candidates," says Volodimir Gorbach, an analyst with the independent Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation in Kiev. "Each represents a different orientation and scale of values; each would take Ukraine forward into a different future."

More than 20 candidates are on the ballot for the first round of voting Oct. 31. The latest surveys suggest a dead heat, with Mr. Yanukovich at 34 percent and Mr. Yushchenko at 32 percent.

If neither candidate wins an outright majority Sunday, the two will face each other in a runoff on Nov. 22.

Dirty tricks alleged

Reports of dirty campaign tactics have often overshadowed the candidate's messages. Yushchenko was hospitalized last month after what his staff insist was an attempt to poison him. Human rights groups say that pro-Yushchenko activists are routinely harassed by police and barred from media access.

"The level of official abuse is unprecedented," says Alexander Chernenko, head analyst for Voters of Ukraine, an independent monitoring group.

Yanukovich, a career bureaucrat backed by big industrialists closely linked with Russia, would drag Ukraine back into Moscow's orbit, Mr. Gorbach says.

Yanukovich is the chosen heir of Ukraine's current president, Leonid Kuchma, who is required by law to step down when his second term ends in December. As incumbent prime minister, he has doubled pensions and slapped popular price controls on gas and oil. He also pledges to make Russian the second official language, after Ukrainian, and permit Ukrainians to hold Russian citizenship.

But his supporters insist he will also pursue better relations with the West. "Yanukovich is pro-Ukrainian, and nothing else," says Raisa Bogatyrova, a pro-Yanukovich parliamentarian.
Yushchenko, a former prime minister and central banker, says he will accelerate economic reforms to prepare for Ukraine's yearned-for entry into the EU.

Though he is a moderate liberal who stands for good relations with Russia, Ukraine's state-dominated media have relentlessly cast Yushchenko as a lapdog of Western interests. Though careful not to endorse a candidate, Western governments hope Ukraine will avoid a post-Soviet slide toward autocratic rule, as has happened in Belarus.

"Of course relations between our countries may not be so warm, but nothing dangerous for Russia will happen if Yushchenko wins the elections," says Vyacheslav Igrunov, director of the independent Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies in Moscow.

Opposition leaders are furious over what they describe as the direct interference of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who arrived Tuesday for a three-day election-eve visit, ostensibly to attend a huge military parade marking the 60th anniversary of Kiev's liberation from the Nazis on Thursday.

In an hourlong interview broadcast on Ukraine's three main TV channels Tuesday, Mr. Putin extolled his plan for a post-Soviet Unified Economic Space - a customs union that would join Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan - and praised Yanukovich as a man the Kremlin can do business with.

"The government of Viktor Yanukovich has done more" than just deliver strong economic growth, Putin said. "It has achieved growth of high quality."

Yanukovich's backers deny all charges of official bias and counter that the opposition is adopting aggressive street tactics to compensate for its dwindling popular support.

An electric atmosphere
A huge pro-Yushchenko rally in Kiev last weekend ended in minor violence when some protesters tried to push their way into the headquarters of Ukraine's Central Elections Commission.

Yushchenko has pledged to bring a half-million supporters into the streets of Kiev after the first round of voting this Sunday, supposedly to guard against electoral fraud. Yanukovich's people charge that it is actually a threat to stage a coup if the polls don't go his way.

"The opposition have made it clear that if the results don't suit them, they won't consider the elections legitimate," says Ms. Bogatyrova. "I fear we can expect some actions from them."
Thousands of international observers will be on hand for Sunday's voting, and their judgment may be crucial to the survival of democracy in Ukraine, some experts say.

"There is a lot of electricity in the air here," says Oleksandr Shushko, director of the independent Center for Peace, Conversion, and Foreign Policy in Kiev.

"I do not believe these elections will be free and fair, and that means there are critical days ahead," he adds. "If there is a widespread perception that the election has been stolen, everything will depend on how the public responds. The reaction of the authorities is already clear: They are preparing for war."

Critical vote in Ukraine

http://washingtontimes.com/commentary/20041026-090701-1078r.htm

By Bruce Bartlett


The United States isn't the only country having a presidential election in the next few days. There is also an important vote coming up in Ukraine on Oct. 31. The election there will be far more momentous for that country than ours will be for us. Whoever wins here, our basic policies will not change fundamentally. In Ukraine, by contrast, the election could be revolutionary.
Like many of the former republics of the old Soviet Union, Ukraine has struggled, politically and economically. It has no history of either democracy or self-government, having been a vassal of Russia long before the communist takeover. And because of communism, Ukraine's economy never developed naturally so as to exploit those industries and businesses most appropriate for its location and resources. Under central planning, production was guided by political whim, with the result that much of the industry located in Ukraine at independence was inherently unviable in a free market.

Ukraine also suffers in other ways from the communist legacy. The Chernobyl nuclear power plant is still a mess, and the nation has never fully recovered from the awful famine inflicted upon it by Josef Stalin in the 1930s that is estimated to have killed as many as 10 million people — more than died in the Holocaust.

However, other former Soviet republics and even Russia itself have also had to deal with the consequences of communism, and most have done a better job than Ukraine has done. This is primarily because of abysmal leadership. Its current president, Leonid Kuchma, is highly corrupt and a thug as well. There is strong evidence that he may have had a journalist killed a few years ago for looking too deeply into his affairs. Fortunately, Mr. Kuchma is not running for re-election. But he is backing someone — Viktor Yanukovych — who looks like his clone.
Thankfully, there is an alternative. Viktor Yushchenko, a former prime minister and head of the central bank, is leading a reform bloc that has a good chance of winning if the election isn't stolen from him — or worse. Just a few weeks ago, it appears that he was deliberately poisoned in an effort to thwart his campaign.

As it happens, I know Mr. Yushchenko's wife, Katherine Chumachenko, an American of Ukrainian descent. She and I met in the late 1980s when she was working in the human rights bureau at the State Department. Later, we worked together at the White House, where she was in the Office of Public Liaison, and the Treasury Department, where she worked in the executive secretary's office.

Kathy — she is now known as Kateryna — is one of the brightest, most dedicated conservatives I have ever known. She has a MBA from the University of Chicago and is well versed in that school's free market economics tradition. The first time we ever met was at a Heritage Foundation event.

Anyone who met Kathy quickly discovered that the liberation of Ukraine from communist tyranny was her primary mission in life, to the exclusion of almost everything else. So it was no surprise to me when she moved to Kiev soon after it broke free of Moscow's control in 1991. I helped get her a position there with KPMG, an American consulting company, where she trained Ukrainians in Western methods of banking, accounting and other fundamentals of a market economy.

Kathy married Mr. Yush-chenko five years ago, while he was still running the central bank. In that position, he was one of the few Ukrainians who was trusted by foreign investors. He has a reputation for honesty as well as competence — the former perhaps being more important than the latter, given the widespread corruption in Ukraine. A new report from Transparency International ranks Ukraine as one of the most corrupt nations on Earth.

In December 1999, Mr. Yushchenko was named prime minister. By all accounts, he did an excellent job, helping to implement economic and political reforms. This did not endear him to President Kuchma or the oligarchs who have robbed the country blind, so he was sacked in April 2001. Since then, he has been a member of Ukraine's parliament, where he has continued to press for reform.

Ukraine should naturally be aligned with Poland and other Eastern European countries that have implemented reforms and prospered in the post-communist era, becoming strong allies of the United States in the war against terrorism. Only its own rotten leadership has held it back. If Mr. Yushchenko wins, its promise will be much closer to becoming a reality. Regretfully, if he loses, it could fall even further behind.

The vote on Sunday is unlikely to produce a winner. More than likely, Messrs. Yushchenko and Yanukovych will meet again in a runoff three weeks later. That vote will determine Ukraine's future for many years to come.

Bruce Bartlett is senior fellow with the National Center for Policy Analysis and a nationally syndicated columnist.

Ex-Soviet states still in Russia's shadow

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Columnists/Column/0,5673,1336766,00.html
Ex-Soviet states still in Russia's shadow
Simon Tisdall
Wednesday October 27, 2004
The Guardian

Vladimir Putin is not averse to voicing his opinions on other countries' elections.

He recently endorsed George Bush's re-election bid. And when it comes to Ukraine, there is little doubt where he stands. He favours Ukraine's prime minister, Viktor Yanukovich, a man in the authoritarian mould of the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma. Protests of interference from supporters of the pro-western candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, have gone unheeded.

Russia's reasons for wanting a biddable, like-minded government in Kiev are numerous. It is a strategic part of what Moscow calls its "near abroad" - countries once part of the Soviet Union. It is of particular importance in defence. The Black Sea fleet is still based at Sevastopol in Crimea, now part of Ukraine.

Mr Putin's revived interest has led to heightened tensions with Georgia. Moscow's tolerance enabled the dictator of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to tighten his grip on power this month. The prevalence of "controlled democracy" in the former Soviet central Asia republics matches Russia, where political pluralism is becoming a thing of the past.

Trade and oil are other reasons why Mr Putin's embrace of Ukraine is tightening. Russia would also be dismayed were Ukraine to join Nato - it has associate status under the partnership for peace programme. Much the same goes for the EU.

Full membership of both organisations, and closer ties to the US, are advocated by Mr Yushchenko - but he fears trends may be dragging Ukraine backwards. "There are ominous signs of a neo-Soviet revival here," he wrote recently. Ukrainians "always considered ourselves part of Europe, not just neighbours". But following EU enlargement in May, the danger was a bipolar Europe with opposing centres in Brussels and Moscow.

"The dividing line established during the cold war has not totally vanished - it has only shifted a few hundred kilometres to the east," Mr Yushchenko said. The EU faced the prospect of "an entire bloc of authoritarian, corrupt regimes on its borders".

Mr Yanukovich has a different view. "The question of EU membership must take into consideration Ukraine's economic cooperation with Russia," he said. "Our neighbour is our friend as well as our largest trading partner." Ukraine would further integrate with Europe "when the time is right".

Like Mr Kuchma and Mr Putin, Mr Yanukovich backs media controls and a state-oriented, oligarchic business structure. Stern measures are planned should the opposition contest on the streets next Sunday's result or the expected run-off.

The EU is watching Ukraine's polls closely, as are the Council of Europe and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Each is concerned at possible intimidation or fraud.

Influenced by Mr Kuchma's contribution of troops to Iraq, the US's criticism is muted. But the US embassy in Kiev said it was launching a $13m (£7m) programme "to support free and fair elections".

According to Richard Holbrooke, the former US ambassador to the UN, tipped as secretary of state should John Kerry win: "Good relations with Mr Putin need not be purchased at the price of democratic regression in Russia or Moscow's intimidation of Ukraine, Georgia and other former Soviet republics."

Ukrainian campaign tainted by violence

http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/10/27/wtrix27.xml&sSheet=/portal/2004/10/27/ixportal.html

Ukrainian campaign tainted by violence
(Filed: 27/10/2004)

Corrupt leadership of former Soviet republic is resorting to dirty tricks to try to retain power in this weekend's elections. Julius Strauss reports from Kiev

The opposition leader's face was badly disfigured, allegedly by poison. Undercover police dressed as thugs stabbed demonstrators at an anti-government protest.

Around Kiev the SBU, successor to the KGB, has been hauling off student activists and democracy campaigners. There has been a series of mysterious explosions. This is the election campaign in Ukraine - an election described as the most important in the former Soviet republic since it became independent more than a decade ago.

The result will leave Ukraine - a country of 48 million people once known as the bread-basket of the Soviet Union - firmly in either the western or Russian orbit for many years to come. It may also prove decisive in whether President Vladimir Putin can recreate a rump Soviet Union based on a common economic zone between Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

The campaign has been marred by beatings, arrests and attacks, apparently orchestrated by the ruling regime. With the polls giving the opposition a slight lead there is even speculation that the regime may cancel or steal the election if it does not produce the right result.

In recent years, government figures have been accused of involvement in numerous scandals, including the murder of a journalist, which, if investigated, could mean some of them not only lose power but end up in prison. The difference between the two leading candidates and their platforms could hardly be starker.

Viktor Yushchenko, leader of the opposition Our Ukraine coalition, who now wears heavy make-up to conceal his disfigured face, is offering closer ties to the West and a path towards eventual membership of Nato and the European Union.

Viktor Yanukovich, the chosen successor of Leonid Kuchma, the outgoing president, has promised to make Russian an official language, allow Ukrainians dual citizenship and move politically closer to Moscow.

Mr Yanukovich's staff have been forced to admit that he served two prison sentences for violent crime. In the West, such a disclosure might be expected to finish a politician but in the former Soviet Union the charges have less resonance.

"It's true he was a bit of a hooligan but that was a long time ago," said Lyudmila Bugayenko, 56, as she gave out leaflets in Kiev. "Anyway, he pays the pensions on time."

The Kremlin, which recently endorsed the victory of the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko despite widespread evidence of vote-rigging, has plumped for the less democratic, more pro-Russian option.

Mr Putin was expected in Ukraine yesterday for a parade marking the anniversary of the defeat of the Germans in the Second World War - the event has been brought forward a week as it is expected to boost the regime's chances - and will speak live on Ukrainian television.

Some voters want Ukraine to move closer to Moscow. Alexei, 23, who operates a weighing machine in Kiev, said: "Russia is close to us. We have a common history. We're part of their world."

But many more have had enough of the pro-Moscow faction after a decade of corruption and scandal. Sasha, 31, a bartender, said: "This election is a choice between a moral and a criminal future. It's not just about the EU and Nato - it's about us."

Last weekend, up to 100,000 demonstrators protested in Kiev against electoral abuses by the authorities. But, far from backing down, the regime has only stepped up its attacks. Pora, a student-based organisation calling for honest elections, has been a special target.

Yevhen Zolotarion, a Pora activist, said: "We've had more than 400 members arrested. In the last fortnight 16 of our activists have been beaten by police. The authorities fear us because they fear fair elections."

In a small basement flat last week one of Pora's affiliates was being raided by the SBU when I arrived. "This is an official search, you can't come in," an agent said as two policemen watched silently.

Nearby, Yurko Pavenko, an Our Ukraine MP, was making an official complaint, though little was likely to come of it. He said: "If Yanukovich wins we will live in a country where there are no civil rights and everything is controlled by oligarchs and mafiosi."

Putin Goes on Stump in Ukraine

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/10/27/001.html

Putin Goes on Stump in Ukraine

By Francesca Mereu and Simon Saradzhyan
Staff Writers

KIEV -- President Vladimir Putin went live on prime-time Ukrainian television Tuesday to promise a bright common future for Russia and Ukraine. But he linked it to the continuity of projects pursued by the two countries' current leaderships, in a clear effort to support this Sunday's presidential bid by Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, favorite of both the Kremlin and the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma.

"I would like Russia and Ukraine to occupy appropriate niches in modern human civilization," Putin said in a Q&A session broadcast live by three national Ukrainian channels Tuesday evening. "We are large countries, we are high-tech countries with a high level of culture," he said.

Joining their efforts, Russian and Ukraine's high-tech industries, including space industries, could conquer markets in third countries, "which would be very complicated" if Kiev and Moscow act separately, Putin said.

Putin flew into Kiev for a three-day visit just five days before Sunday's election, which will see Yanukovych in a neck-and-neck battle against opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko, who enjoys the support of nationalist and pro-Western voters.

Analysts predict that neither of the two candidates will win the elections outright and that they will square off in a second round next month.

In a clear effort to rally undecided voters, Putin, who has openly associated himself with Yanukovych's campaign, called on Ukrainians to come out and vote "for the candidate you really trust."

Putin promised to Ukrainian voters that Russia would push for dual citizenship for citizens of Ukraine, Russia and Belarus in a clear gesture of support for Yanukovych, who is campaigning on the platform of closer ties among the Slavic countries.

Putin also touted the idea of allowing all citizens of countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States to travel freely between member countries with only their domestic passports -- a move that would definitely please Ukrainian workers who travel to Russia in search of better-paying jobs.

In an ill-camouflaged attempt to support Kuchma's designated heir, Putin also praised Ukrainian government leaders for devoting most of their interaction with their Russian counterparts to discussing how to improve the living conditions of their citizens. "During our meetings, we are practically only talking about this issue," Putin said.

Putin also took time to push Russia's agenda in Ukraine by asserting that the presence of Russia's Black Sea fleet base in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol does not contradict the Ukrainian constitution. He also repeatedly mentioned the Unified Economic Space, a putative customs union that Russia is trying to put together with Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, by saying that Russia may agree to give up sovereignty on some economic issues to this organization if its development leads to the establishment of a supranational body.

Putin also sought to alleviate concerns of Yushchenko supporters that suspect Russia of harboring imperial ambitions toward Ukraine by saying that any attempt to revive the Soviet empire "would be counterproductive."

While clearly on a pro-Yanukovych campaign mission, Putin used the celebration of the 60th anniversary of Kiev's liberation from Nazi Germany as the official reason for his visit. In an apparent effort to link the election campaign to the anniversary, Ukrainian authorities even moved the celebrations forward from the historical date of Nov. 6 to Thursday, three days before the election.

Putin will attend Thursday's parade and meet with Kuchma and Yanukovych in set-piece events guaranteed to win generous coverage on state-controlled media in both countries.

By siding openly with Yanukovych, Putin risks losing face if Yushchenko wins. Such a loss would also deal a blow to Russia's reputation as a mover and shaker in the former Soviet Union, which Moscow considers to be its own strategic backyard. The Kremlin's upfront support for Yanukovych has already started to annoy some Ukrainians and could be counterproductive, both analysts and voters said.

Yushchenko issued a statement Tuesday evening to warn Putin that Yanukovych is trying to "draw Russia into the resolution of his personal problems" and that Putin's visit, regardless of its official pretext, would be viewed as related to the presidential race.

"This is the worst interference in Ukrainian interior affairs," said Vladimir Polokhalo, an independent political analyst at the World Economy and International Relations Institute of the Ukrainian Science Academy. "Putin is arriving today for the celebration of the 60th anniversary of Kiev's liberation, but everyone here understands that this is just a pretext. People understand that Putin is coming to back Yanukovych. This is one of the many dirty PR stunts of these elections."

Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Viktor Chernomyrdin told reporters Tuesday that Putin's visit "is not linked to the presidential elections."

Officials in Kiev said the change in the date for the anniversary parade was made a year ago.

For Hryhoriy Nemyria, director of the Center for European and International Studies, "Putin's visit is an ingredient of the Yanukovych cocktail."

The cocktail, he said, "consists of three ingredients -- one, administrative resources; two, the harassment of NGOs, the media and the opposition; and three -- and this is where Putin comes in -- Russia's shoulder."

The authorities, Nemyria said, are counting on the voters who have sympathy for Putin and on Putin's charisma to stump up votes for Yanukovych.

But both experts believe that Putin's intervention could play a counterproductive role.

"Those who have already decided to vote for Yanukovych do not need Putin to come to convince them to do so," Nemyria said.

Alyona Pritula, editor of online paper pravda.com.ua, said that the Ukrainian electorate is divided into "those from western and central Ukraine, who are very skeptical toward Russia and are against Russia's interfering in the elections, and those from eastern Ukraine, where most people speak Russian and watch Russian television."

Some Kiev residents on Tuesday also took umbrage at what they saw as undue interference in Ukraine's affairs.

Katya, a 27-year-old teacher, called Russia's backing fo Yanukovych "simply interfering in another country's affairs."

"Ukraine is not Russia, but Russia still thinks that it can influence our internal politics. I won't vote for anyone who has been chosen by Russia," she said.

Dmitry, a 38-year-old taxi driver, said that Putin is unlikely to convince him to vote for Yanukovych. "Our media are selling us Yanukovych as they sell toothpaste," he said. "Even if the Russian president joins this advertising, he is not going to convince me to buy bad-quality toothpaste."

Simon Saradzhyan reported from Moscow.

Russia's Interference in Ukraine Is in Vain

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/10/27/006.html

Wednesday, October 27, 2004. Page 10.

Russia's Interference in Ukraine Is in Vain

By Borys Tarasyuk

President Vladimir Putin's visit to Kiev for the commemoration of Ukraine's liberation from the Nazis during World War II is an attempt to save the failing presidential campaign of incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych. For months Kremlin spin doctors aiding the Yanukovych campaign have used a strategy of splitting Ukraine's multicultural society along linguistic, ethnic and religious fault lines. They've taken great pride in authoring temnyki -- special instructions from the presidential administration to the mass media on what events and issues should be covered -- creating an information vacuum on objective news coverage in our country. In the week before the election, they've given more airtime on Ukraine's national networks to Putin, Russian Duma Deputies and Russian pop stars than to the presidential candidates who will decide Ukraine's future. Yanukovych's billboards have mushroomed all over Moscow. Russian officials supporting Ukraine's prime minister wooed our diaspora recently in the Kremlin's column hall. And an unprecedented number of polling stations have been opened in Russia to serve hundreds of thousands of newly found Ukrainians, many with Russian passports. All the while, we are told that Russia is not interfering in Ukraine's presidential election. Nothing can be further from the truth. However, I believe the strategy to influence Ukraine's election by Russian spin doctors will fail and here's why. The choice facing Ukrainian voters in the election is clear. It is not between politicians from the left or right, different vectors in international relations, or between differing tongues and nationalities -- it is a choice between two competing value systems. One, represented by Ukraine's dynamic opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko, is based on democratic values, respecting individual liberties, and promotes economic opportunities and competitiveness. The other, represented by Yanukovych, proposes keeping in office a ruling clan that values autocracy and crony capitalism more than freedom and the rule of law. There is no doubt that Ukrainians want this election to bring about change. Overwhelmingly, they think the country is heading in the wrong direction. They are tired of a corrupt government that does not respect human rights, ignores democratic principles, abuses law enforcement officials and works to enrich a handful of oligarchs at the expense of all citizens. They want opportunities to build a better life for their families and want leaders they can trust. To derail voters from their yearnings for change, a dirty campaign has been launched. With advice from Russian PR specialists, the regime of outgoing President Leonid Kuchma has mobilized government resources to create a pre-election environment of fear, intimidation and uncertainty. Independent media have been systematically silenced, businesses that support the democratic opposition are harassed by tax and police authorities, presidential candidates are illegally shadowed, public rallies are ruthlessly suppressed and civil unrest is being provoked by state-controlled mass media days before the election. The election campaign has been unfair from the start because it openly ignored two basic OSCE criteria for free and fair elections: the absence of government interference in the electoral process and equal access of candidates to mass media. Thousands of pre-election violations by the incumbent regime have gone unpunished by law enforcement bodies. Under pressure from top government officials, bureaucrats at all levels have been forced to campaign openly for the incumbent prime minister. Even the chairman of Ukraine's Central Bank has put the country's currency stability in jeopardy by leaving its stewardship to an unaccountable deputy, while taking a leave of absence to steer the prime minister's election campaign. What can save Ukraine's autumn presidential poll? Ballot security -- and that will only be guaranteed on election day by the impartial actions of individual election commissioners brave enough to withstand the pressure brought to bear on them by local authorities and rogue police officers instructed by Kuchma's machine to deliver the vote it wants. Domestic and international election observers are needed to help ensure the final act in this election campaign is not stolen by the incumbent regime, as has been done before. I am convinced all these government efforts are in vain because Ukrainian society has long ago made its choice in favor of democratic values and the rule of law. However, it is the incumbent government that has not delivered on earlier promises of moving Ukraine closer to Europe. With Yushchenko at the helm, a democratic Ukraine will live up to its international commitments before the Council of Europe, OSCE and the EU. A democratic Ukraine will encourage the inflow of investment capital, including Russian. Our foreign policy will become consistent and predictable because it will be based on our national interests rather than the individual interests of Ukraine's ruling clans. Sixty percent of Ukrainians support closer European ties and want to maintain good neighborly relations with Russia. This is Ukraine's national interest. Unfortunately, the incumbent Kiev government remains wedded to policies that divide not only our own society, but also our international relations. A democratic Ukraine will build relations with Russia based on a mutual respect of national interests, leaving behind old stereotypes. We will sustain historic economic relations with Moscow and forge new initiatives, both bilateral and multilateral, benefiting the people of both countries. This should not be accomplished at the expense of our national interest and democratic values. Ukrainians sense there is a rising threat of a new bipolar Europe, with centers in Brussels and Moscow, and with competing sets of values. Ukraine will guarantee our nation's stability through democratic values and will support European security by promoting these values among our eastern neighbors. If Ukraine veers off the democratic path, an alarming message will be sent to the elites and proponents of democracy in Russia, Belarus and other former Soviet states. The prospect of having an entire bloc of authoritarian, corrupt regimes on the border with Europe should awaken all those who hold dear democratic values and individual liberty. The wall that separated us ideologically during the Cold War should not be erected anew based on these competing sets of values. Ukraine's democratic forces are committed to bringing about change in our country peacefully and legally. The Oct. 31 election is our chance for new opportunities and a better life for all Ukrainians. Millions of my fellow citizens will not allow the government to rob us of this chance. Borys Tarasyuk, an elected people's deputy, is chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on European Integration and was Ukraine's foreign minister from 1998 to 2000. He contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.

Ukraine's Big Decision

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1027/p08s03-comv.html

Commentary > The Monitor's View
from the October 27, 2004 edition
Ukraine's Big Decision

Eastern Europe's largest country outside of Russia stands at a crossroads this weekend, as voters in Ukraine decide between an autocratic leader who leans toward an increasingly autocratic Russia, or a democratic one who wants closer ties to the West.

People who live outside this part of Europe can be forgiven if they think of Ukraine as a backwater. In the 1990s, the former Soviet republic dove into an economic tailspin. What shot up were cronyism and corruption as oligarchs vied for control. The country turned off even foreign investors, hardly the faint of heart.

But backwater no more, Ukraine now laps the shores of the expanded European Union (it's neighbor to newest EU members Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary). Corruption and powerful business tycoons still grip the country, but thanks to modest economic reforms and higher prices for steel exports, Ukraine's economy has picked up since 2000, and this year clocked in an impressive growth rate of more than 13 percent. And Ukrainians are active peacekeepers, with 1,600 troops helping back the US in Iraq.

But even these factors, while reason enough for the world to prick up its ears, play second to the healthy influence a more democratic and Western oriented Ukraine might exert on Europe as a whole.

In Moscow's orbit for centuries, a progressive Ukraine could serve as a beacon, pointing the way to Russia and northern neighbor Belarus, both following a disturbing retro trend to the bad old days of strong-arm rule.

Ukraine's potential, however, is endangered by a presidential campaign marked by violence, intimidation, biased media coverage, and - bizarrely - the alleged (nonfatal) poisoning of Viktor Yushchenko, the leading opposition candidate.

Mr. Yushchenko, Ukraine's Western-oriented former prime minister, is running neck-and-neck with Viktor Yanukovich, the country's current prime minister who wants tighter state control over the economy and closer ties to Russia.

US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher cites "serious violations" in the electoral procedure so far. Observers in and out of the country fear Mr. Yanukovich - backed by Russia's Vladimir Putin, outgoing Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, and entrenched business interests - will steal the election through fraud.

The EU and US, as well as Ukrainians, should keep up the pressure for a free and fair election. An important nation's future depends on it.

A Moscow Perspective on Ukraine's Election

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/10/27/008.html

Wednesday, October 27, 2004. Page 11.

A Moscow Perspective on Ukraine's Election

By Sergei Markov The possibility of widespread unrest in Ukraine is a real threat as the presidential election approaches. Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, whose rating at the beginning of the campaign was just one-sixth of opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko's, is now running neck and neck with Yushchenko.

Yanukovych's jump in the ratings has been helped by: economic growth in Ukraine, which is running at 13 percent in 2004 -- the highest in Europe; the prime minister's decision to increase pensions twofold; his statement that he will push for Russian to be given the status of an official state language and for an agreement with Russia on dual citizenship; pro-Yanukovych coverage on state-controlled Ukrainian television; a vigorous election campaign; and the fact that significantly more voters live in the industrial, Russian-speaking East and South than in the agricultural West.

In addition, the pro-Russian left will almost certainly support Yanukovych in the event of a runoff.

The opposition, which had been certain of Yushchenko's victory, has suddenly realized that their victory is slipping away from them. This makes it all the more likely that political developments in Ukraine could take a violent turn.

A coup has occurred in Yushchenko's campaign headquarters: The moderates have been pushed aside, while the "Iron Lady" of Ukrainian politics, Yulia Timoshenko, has taken charge. Timoshenko, who has spent time in prison, is the main organizer of mass demonstrations under the slogan "Down With Kuchma!" that have taken place over the past few months; she has many times declared that Ukraine needs to organize a "kashtanovaya" or "chestnut" revolution" (from the word for chestnut trees, kashtani, which line the main Kreshchatik Street in Kiev), similar to the Rose Revolution in Tbilisi, Georgia. The opposition has announced that it intends to gather half a million people for a political rally during election night, Oct. 31, in the center of Kiev with the goal of monitoring the vote count.

On Yanukovych's side, a large Orthodox Christian procession against Yushchenko is planned for the morning of election day. The Ukrainian authorities are also planning a military parade in Kiev on Oct. 28. Moreover, Ukraine's "power-wielding" ministries have issued several public warnings about a possible coup d'etat.

The Yushchenko opposition has developed an ideological justification for launching a revolution: Since Yushchenko has always led in the polls, a truly free and fair election could only produce a Yushchenko victory. If Yushchenko does not win the election, it means that the authorities have falsified the elections. Thus, according to Yushchenko's supporters, the falsification of the election would give the Ukrainian people the moral right to protest and overthrow the regime.

The tension in the election campaign has been ratcheted up even further because of the bizarre illness suffered by Yushchenko, which his supporters believe is the result of an attempt by opponents to poison him. Whatever happens, few believe that Kuchma is prepared to leave office irrespective of the outcome.

Both sides have readied their troops for battle. Yushchenko has on his side the support of:

The activists of Timoshenko's bloc who have organized the mass protests against Kuchma;

Ukrainian nationalist organizations;

The military wing of Mendzhliss, the powerful political organization of Crimean Tatars, which has blockaded Crimean administrative buildings and roads, seized land, rescued by force its members held under arrest and declared unconditional support for Yushchenko;

The student activist group "PORA!." PORA! was organized several months ago along the lines of the OTPOR group in Belgrade which overthrew Slobodan Milosevich, and KMAR in Tbilisi which overthrew Eduard Shevardnadze (Alexander Marich, the main political consultant to OTPOR and KMAR, worked for several months in Kiev; on Oct. 12, he was arrested by the Ukrainian security services and deported);

Activists of the Greek Catholic and Orthodox (Kiev Patriarchate) communities, who several years ago were involved in street battles around churches.

Yanukovych has on his side the support of:

The coal miners, who several months ago disrupted Yushchenko's planned party congress in Donetsk -- effectively expelling Yushchenko from Donetsk. The coal miners would be more than happy to descend on Kiev to "beat the Western Ukrainian nationalists";

The powerful movement of fans of the Shakhtyor and Dynamo soccer teams, controlled by the Yanukovych camp. They have organized outings to various cities in groups numbering as much 30,000;

Activists of the Orthodox organizations representing the Moscow Patriarchate, who have participated in the street battles around churches;

Fighters from the Bratstvo organization, led by Dmitry Korchinsky -- something similar to Eduard Limonov's National Bolshevik Party.

The police, the security services and the army will be on the side of the authorities, but the majority of citizens in Kiev will be on the side of the Yushchenko opposition. Although Yanukovych and Yushchenko are level-pegging nationally, in Kiev, Yushchenko's rating is higher than Yanukovych's by a ratio of 2 to 1. In this context, it is worth recalling Lenin's dictum that in a revolution, having the support of the capital is much more important than having the support of the country as a whole.

The possibility of street clashes in Kiev on election night or shortly after the election is becoming increasingly likely as election day approaches. Indeed, there is no point in talking about whether there will be violent clashes or not, but rather about what can be done to avert them. I believe concerted efforts must be undertaken by the leaders of Russia, the United States and the leading EU countries, who should issue a joint declaration on Ukraine, urging Ukraine's hotheaded politicians to allow the voters -- not the demonstrators -- to ultimately determine who will be the next president of Ukraine. Urgent Russian-European consultations are required, and measures should be taken to prevent the occurrence of political violence in Kiev and disruption of the elections.

Moscow has an interest in Yanukovych winning, but not at the cost of serious destabilization of its neighbor, with which Russia enjoys extensive ties and an almost open border. Paradoxical as it may sound, Moscow has a strong interest in democracy prevailing in the Ukraine. The thing is, approximately 80 percent of Ukrainian citizens believe that Ukrainian-Russian relations should be a priority for the country. Thus, the more democratic Ukraine becomes, the greater the likelihood that Ukrainians' views will become official government policy.

Moscow does not consider Yushchenko a democrat because on issues that are of fundamental importance to Russia -- such as the status of the Russian language, Ukrainian-Russian relations, Ukrainian-U.S. relations and religious-political issues -- his views are in the minority and, if elected, he will most probably foist his views on the majority. The majority of Ukrainians like Yushchenko on a personal level, but do not approve of the political program that his team has prepared for him.

Moscow fears that under Yushchenko, Ukraine's military industrial complex will will be paid a visit by the U.S. intelligence services, as a result of which Russia will be forced to cease military cooperation with the Ukraine. The cost of this could be as much as $10 billion, as well as the possible collapse of the part of Russia's military industrial complex that since Soviet times has been technologically integrated with its Ukrainian counterpart.

Moscow also fears that under Yushchenko, the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be forced out of Sevastopol. The cost of building a new Black Sea Russian naval base is hard to calculate, but we are talking about tens of billions of dollars, as well as the collapse of Russian influence in the Middle East and Mediterranean.

In any case, Moscow is certain that the pro-Russian candidate will always be victorious in any democratic election.

It is a mistake to believe that the political-cultural divide in Ukraine runs between Russians and Ukrainians. In fact, the real cultural and civilizational boundary, as Samuel Huntington shows in "The Clash of Civilizations," is drawn between: Western Ukraine, which is Greek Catholic and which formerly was part of Poland and the Austro-Hungarian Empire (accounting for 15 percent of the population), and Westernized Kievans (approximately 5 percent of the population) on the one side; and, on the other side, the rest of Ukraine, where the traditional Orthodox Russian-Ukrainian majority lives that, incidentally, does not speak literary Russian or literary Ukrainian, but a mixture of the two -- so-called Surzhik.

Thus, Yushchenko is the candidate of the diaspora, while Yanukovych is the "Surzhik" candidate.

Yushchenko represents agricultural, pre-industrial Ukraine, as well as post-industrial Kiev. He also represents the Ukrainian yearning for an identity separate from Russia, as well as the younger generation's dream of Ukraine becoming a full-fledged member of Europe.

Yanukovych, on the other hand, represents the Russian-Ukrainian Orthodox majority, working in the industrial and manufacturing centers of Ukraine. He also represents the pensioners, who actively participate in Ukrainian elections and who, at the end of the day, will most likely play a decisive role in bringing Yanukovych to power as Ukraine's next president.

Sergei Markov is director of the Institute of Political Studies and head of the analytical department of the Russian Club in Ukraine. He contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.